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Roslindale Square commercial rents continue upward spiral: Next to go could be longtime barbershop
By adamg on Wed, 06/10/2015 - 8:56pm
Vicky at the Rialto Barbershop posted today that she's started collecting customer contact info just in case she has to move due to rent increases. She writes that she hopes to stay in the same location, even if under "great strain," until next year.
The Rialto is named for the theater that used to sit behind it.
Wapo Taco recently announced its shutdown after the landlord doubled its rent. The Vouros Greek bakery also shut down. Seymour Green briefly shut and announced plans to move down near Forest Hills, but re-opened at its old Poplar Street location.
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Comments
C'mon
Alright this is just getting ridiculous, at this rate in 20 years there's only gonna be chain businesses in Boston. WHAT IS HAPPENING TO OUR SOCIETY
You
Don't see the Dominican barber shops bitching, because they actually have barbers renting chairs and a constant flow of customers.
All of her customers will be dead in 5 year anyways.
Rozie has barbershops like Westie has banks and pizza places.
Sorry, I expect to live longer than 5 more years
Yeah, I'm one of her customers. Often have a wait when I go in because there are other customers ahead of me.
You must be thrilled beyond belief that that barbershop on Corinth recently closed.
how can rent possibly be too
how can rent possibly be too high for a hair and/or nail place? they are like the cockroaches of business districts.
Success!
Before everyone goes on about it is such a shame that the cute local store has to move out, the reason why rents are going up is you, the shopper.
Rents are what the market will bear. The more money spent by people with ever increasing wealth, and there is more wealth in Roslindale makes retailers and all their demographic charts and radii spending maps show that Roslindale Square is where Centre St JP was 15 years ago or Brookline Village was 20 years ago or Tremont at Dartmouh 30 years ago; Middle Middle to Upper Middle income brackets moving into former working class retail areas.
That is why Unleashed By Petco or an artisanal pickle and shoe polish shop can pay more than the 3rd generation yarn shop.
Landlords are there for their own interest. It would be nice if they could operate and charge lower rents to preserve the neighborhood as it was when you moved in, but you are not giving back 30% of your pay to your company because you think it's nice, are you?
Also, watch out Dot Ave between St. Margaret's and dbar, you are next and Broadway in Chelsea has about another 20 years before it starts to look like Davis Square.
Hmmm
I'm giving it 10, we just keep growing and growing. And I'm noticing different faces downtown more these days than the usual local crowd.. so it's slowly changing.
It's funny that you bring up Broadway and Chelsea along with your higher rent comment.
A few moons ago (last year sometime I think) there was a thread on SeeClickFix with (former) City Manager Jay Ash and several residents about Broadway in general and sprucing it up some with some new city ordinances (i.e. awing size, signage, etc etc) to get things uniform to look better.
If you've ever driven down Broadway (from City Hall to Beacon) you'll notice that many of the shops of are a local flavor. Several (like BD's) were former tenants of the Mystic Mall. And while many of these are locally owned businesses, Jay said that amazingly enough many landlords along Broadway charge exorbitant amount for rents, which is why we're left with what we have.... cell phone stores, curtain places, bodegas (lots of these), liquor stores/bars, a few restaurants...
Anyhow I just thought it was interesting you said something about rents and Chelsea in the same post because like Roslindale and JP, we have high (commercial) rents also which eventually will push out the local businesses that cant survive, and eventually we'll see the Davisfication of Chelsea center.
10 years is optimistic I think
Where's the spillover of high rent, people buying in/looking for the "expensive affordable" housing in places like Allston coming from? The idea that's always made most sense to me in the "favored quarter" theory - i.e. gentrification (or whatever you want to call it) spills over from other neighborhoods to the closest, compact, easily accessible neighborhood. So it's the South End-JP-Rozzie by way of the Orange Line, Cambridge-Somerville-Medford, Southie-Andrew Square-Ashmont-Lower Mills by way of the red line trajectories that I'm talking about.
Who's going to Chelsea then and where are they coming from? East Boston has been on the "cusp" for ages, but there's no spillover from downtown so Eastie is a little insulated (it's tangibly changing, but I wouldn't go anywhere as far as writing it off as a new Allston or Somerville-style property value appreciation yet). People going from Somerville seemed more primed to head to Medford than anywhere else. That leaves Charlestown...which is an easier connection to town than Chelsea is (those busses are packed), so you's going to make the jump for less connectivity? Silver Line might change that, but that's only a direct connection to the Seaport, so it duplicates the already existing transfers to the Blue Line and does nothing for crosstown Chelsea-Somerville-Cambridge transit.
I think Chelsea is stunning from an architectural standpoint, really an A+ urban environment - but I don't know if "Somerville" is in it's near-term future - I don't see where the massive influx of wealthier-than-the-current-residents is going to come from, I know you live out there, so maybe you can speak as to where people moving into Chelsea are decamping from.
Chelsea
Yup I know.. Very optimistic. But as a 7+ year resident, I can see the changes happening from when I moved to Chelsea in 2008. It has a far different vibe now, and those complexes keep going up and renting, so there's people coming.
Where are they coming from? Lots of places, many places where people have been priced out of condos. I can't say exactly where they are coming from, but they are coming. My guess are the young, urban crowd that are first time home buyers (like my roommate), who just cannot justify or afford the 400k and up condos elsewhere.
You mention price.. tell me, where in Medford (or anywhere else near to Boston), I can buy a condo for less than 199k? See my point why people are coming here? You can't touch a decent place at that price point anywhere remotely close to the city as Chelsea is.
You mention eastie.. Eastie has come a LONG way since I moved here in 1998. Sure it's not Davis Square, but the rents have gone up significantly since then. Eastie used to be run down, dirty.... not so much anymore. Look at rents in Eastie these days.. not very cheap anymore.
You also mention Charlestown.. sure its close, but it's not affordable. Condos that were built right at the exit ramp from the Tobin Bridge were selling for 998k. Thats far from affordable. (Sorry folks, Charlestown now is Beacon Hill II)
As far as transit. Sure the buses are packed. But we're getting the Silver Line. And remember lots of young urban professionals work in the Seaport, and the SLG would provide a one seat ride to that area (far from the 4 transfers you get now). This alone would make Chelsea very attractive. Plus the SLG runs along and near many of these new complexes in town so it's a easy win for anyone who works in the Seaport.
Plus once the SLG opens, many of the local bus routes will no longer be as crowded as SLG will off load some of those riders. And don't forget we're also getting a new commuter rail station as apart of the project.
You also mention No Direct Chelsea -> Camb/Somerville . Sure, but there's no direct route from JP, Roslindale, and many other communities, so I don't necessarily think this is a downside. But at few years ago there was a discussion by the MBTA and the city to start a new bus route ("113") that would run from Chelsea Center to Lechmere and Kendall. It's in the works, but it's a catch 22, we can't get ridership if don't have riders, but we can't have a direct bus route without ridership.
(PS - I worked in Kendall for many many years, and did this ride daily. It's not that bad. The worst part IS the 111.. but its for 7 minutes, standing)
Bottom line, what's going to attract people to Chelsea is the price for location. And an easy way to buy property and in a few years, sell for a profit.*
(* and I say this as a good thing. many YUP's have no interest in staying long term, so they are often indrect flippers, so buying in Chelsea is a good starting point for many of these people)
Edit: one more thing I wanted to add. A condo in my building just sold. They had one open house.. ONE. On a warm sunday where there was lots of street activity (aka music very loud). The condo owner after the open house had 14 offers on her condo. (it's not that nice inside, and we are not in a complex). Fourteen!!!! That's lot. Real Estate broker told her (and us) that Chelsea is a hot spot right now, and there's not alot of housing stock in Chelsea so places don't last. My point.. people are buying like mad.
So then the next question is:
So then the next question is: what is the scale of the turnover? And where are the properties fetching these rents? Are they the new builds or the Box District? The old brick apts on Broadway? The threedeckers and two families on the hill? That Admiral's Hill (is that the name?) area west of the expressway?
(Just an aside, I'm not trying to disprove your points - I like the "on the ground" view of what's happening, I can't be in Chelsea to see it, so it's great to have somebody translate it with precision...so keep that up. Anyways..)
Back the above questions - what can be said about Chelsea's seediness could have been said about Somerville not more than 15 years ago, and the change since then has been nothing short of a total rewiring of the local economy. That's one of my pet peeves about the "New Somerville" talk - Somerville changed a lot even in the 25 years that I've been alive. And full disclosure, I'm from Cambridge so saying nice shit about Somerville is painful and yet...I can't think of another place in Eastern Mass that has shaped it's own destiny with more effort and cleverness than Somerville. it's a massive change and a massive undertaking, so that's why my default is skepticism when we're talking about Davis Square-ification.
So no doubt that properties are flipping, but do you think it's happening at a scale comparable to what's happened in Somerville? That's why I am saying that "gentrification" tends to follow corridors, one neighborhoods goes and bleeds out to the surrounding neighborhood, wash, rinse, repeat and that's something that neither Eastie nor Chelsea can draw on as easily as places like Somerville or Medford or even Allston. So just for the sake of predicting where the money will go, that's my methodology.
Now if Chelsea really wanted to turn it up drastically I think we agree on the answer: transportation. That's what Somerville understood before anyone else. When the RL northwest extension laid plans, the initial routing didn't touch Davis. It was Somerville that pushed for rapid transit access there (they also spread their efforts to a stub off of Lechmere as far back as the 60s and included in transit plans as far back as the mid-20s), and it was the various administrations, task forces, neighborhood coalitions that leveraged State and Federal programs for rehabilitation grants - no city in Mass has done it half as well as Somerville in this regard, but the change is predicated on transit. So for Chelsea, SL Gateway could be a winner, but the only comparable experience would be with Dudley and I think there's definitely a murkier case for drastic improvement. Ultimately Chelsea needs the urban ring or it needs a Green Line spur from Lechmere, both are wholly dependent on some massive moving and shaking at the yards in the Inner Belt and probably dependent on Blue-Lynn too so as not to screw up the CR.
KBHer
waaaay too much to reply. I will do so in a bit when I am on lunch.. :)
I will reply in a few hours!
S-Bahn
GL Spur is unlikely because with such high congestion in the Central Subway, adding more branches (such as converting any of the Silver Lines to Green Lines) is nearly impossible - I suspect the GLX will be filling its trolleys as soon as they arrive. However, making the North-South link, along with CR electrification, would open up massive amounts of capacity in the commuter network, meaning the commuter line already through Chelsea could become rapid transit - an S[uburban]-Bahn system complimenting the subway's U[rban]-Bahn system. (Probably would cost more billions than the other ideas, but would be able to leverage existing infrastructure to such a boggling extent that it would be the more prudent choice.)
S-Bahn-ification
Is as much a pipe dream as a jamming light rail on to the Eastern Route ROW, unfortunately for us, neither will happen. Even assuming NSRL, electrification, rolling stock replacement, end to FRA buff strength guidelines, massive infra work at North Station to unscrew the drawbridge approach and Mystic Junction and bringing every line up capacity grade - Chelsea is still "inner ring", it's a place where frequent service trumps fast service which is the difference between rapid transit and an S-Bahn style CR. For places like Lowell or Woburn or Franklin, a 20/3-min headway is appropriate, but it isn't for Chelsea - it's already bonkers bus ridership would indicate there's a massive latent demand for rapid transit and not just the final leg of an S-Bahn spur which doesn't take you as many places as light rail would.
Aha
I guess I misused the term. I was thinking basically, frequent heavy-rail service using the commuter rail infra, like how they want the Indigo, but you know, actually frequent.
That's not the point though
You act like this is such a great thing....Boston's culture is slowly falling apart. Families are getting priced out by the day and it's as if the only future that lies ahead for the city is a "Yuppie" run city. Charlestown, Southie, Jamaica Plain, Somerville, and Savin Hill are slowly losing their Irish culture. The % of Italian Americans in the North End is declining while the % of "Yuppies" is skyrocketing. I can't count how many times I've heard older generation Bostonians talk about how unfortunate it is that Boston's losing its true identity. It's nothing against "yuppies", but they all move to the city for 5-7 years max then move right back out to the suburbs so it's essentially a cycle of young urban professionals moving in then right back out and not establishing families and legacies and making little to no impact on the city of Boston. So to sum it up, I'm praying for the sake of Boston's identity and that is can eventually be restored by people who want to actually to leave their mark/ a legacy on the city.
Look In The Mirror
Tom: Your comments on Somerville could have been said 100 years ago when the Scots-Irish community of Somerville bitched and moaned about all the Irish Catholics moving in. Somerville sports teams aren't called the Highlanders for nothing.
As far as the North End goes or Southie goes, it wasnt Persians living in Beverly Hills selling buildings to yuppies, it was people like Rosemary Sansone and Them Fightin' Rooneys convincing locals to sell to those who would buy. That's all. The enemy was us.
I'm a product of the Irish Culture of Dot. Trust me it is still strong in pockets in the neighborhood but it has man spread to Weymouth, Hingham, Scituate, and Marshfield. I like my yard and no bullets flying around.
40 years ago my aunt and uncle visited from Australia and wanted to see "The Ghetto". My dad drove them down Tremont Street and Waltham Street and other parts of the South End. Neighborhoods are always changing. Nothing is really static in this city. We are victims of our own success.
Man Spread
John, you get a gold star for using "Man spread" in a sentence that didn't involve the T
LOL
A simple equation
A small group of millennials and similar have moved into Roslindale and feel they have the formula to make Roslindale a success. That formula suggests that only special small businesses will work, and as a result a boutique atmosphere is being developed.
The new apartments where Higgins Funeral Home used to be are being touted as "transit-oriented development" to a upwardly mobile clientele with a selling point of a one-seat ride on the commuter train into the city, and a short jaunt to the connecting subway. Rents and home sale prices are soaring and long-time residents are being priced out.
That mindset has set the table for the gentrification of Roslindale as some have known it. Our supporting lower and middle class are being priced out of their homes and now the long-time businesses are also feeling the pinch.
In days gone by Roslindale was a great mix of private, small business but also had the likes of large chains such as FW Woolworth, SS Kresge (now K-Mart), and several other large box stores. It was a balanced mix. The lesson of history was forgotten - indeed ignored.
Now with gentrification in progress, something that the local health center knew had started already when they held community meetings on it some years back, the demand is for higher-end type stores and specialty items. That will price out the former shops whose clientele were to low and middle class folks.
To coin a phrase... I told you so.
The number of vacancies in the business district are growing and it will not be long before others follow. The idea is that the new high-end specialty stores will come in based on the demands of the urban mechanics, but the reality is that we are in conservative times now and budgets are being cut and it won't happen.
Cynical? Yes. But unless the trend is stopped now, it will continue and get worse.
Or ...
This has nothing to do with millennials (most of whom probably can't afford to live in the areas adjacent to the Square anyway), and it has nothing to do with the desire for little specialty shops. The Square has had those for a long time along Birch Street, and they co-existed just fine with the old-time shops closer to Washington Street.
What's happening is that the buildings clustered around Adams Park are owned by longtimers, many now in their 80s (think Vinny Marino), who are selling, or looking to cash in on the properties that they could afford to charge relatively low rents on because they invested pretty much no money whatsoever into their upkeep. So you're going to see an influx of national chains who are attracted by the charm the Square has built up over the last 20 years (between the fabled 50s and 60s and today were some pretty horrible times in the 80s and 90s) - and who are the only people who can afford the rents the new or money-hungrier property owners can demand.
Think of it like a smaller version of Harvard Square. Like me, I'm sure you are old enough to remember when Harvard Square used to be a pretty quirky, homegrown kind of place instead of the collection of chain stores and restaurants it is today.
There's also residential rent envy.
It is a strange divergence. Commercial rentals really aren't that valuable in many cases but the owners see the gouging going on with housing and figure it's their turn.
But many small biz types that need a retail location are fading. Book and record stores are doomed. Thrift shops might have a shot. Otherwise it's vanity businesses like nail and hair pits, yoga studios and so on. Vanity pandering sells. Books don't.
Many of those single story urban space wasters will end up being tear downs once the gougers discover that they lack value as is.
My neighborhood is full of dead retail spaces that tried a squeeze play on their tenants. They can probably get tax write offs but that's it.
Nope, blame the internet
I work for a company in commercial real estate (don't hate me, I'm in IT), mostly of the strip mall type. The split of businesses you describe opening vs fading is exactly what we see influenced by the internet. People mostly get new books and records on the internet and used in the stores (hence the thrift store). The growth is in things that need a local physical presence to work (groceries, nail salons, things where people want to touch the product, etc) or that people leave to the last minute (party stores, halloween costumes) or that the cost of shipping is too high for the value of the object (used stuff, dollar stores).
Rents are what the market will bear. Big retailers have analysts that can crunch the numbers and determine if the rent is in line with sales projections.
I suspect smaller landlords like these local guys don't want to pony up the money up-front to fix up the space.
Not very convincing.
In my area Lyndells left a good location due to a lease jack up, A futon store bellied up, book stores gone. I take care of a commercial building and the anchor tenant is a vanity biz as the space is tricked out for that. The upper floors are alt healing and small think tanks.
A K Fry was leveled to become residential with first floor retail. Those models aren't moving very fast. There is a glut at every level in the urban core. The strip mall model is a different critter.
By the way, people are moving past buying artifacts at all in the book/record space. They have this thing called download and it works quite well. No shipping.
No, it's a millennial PLOT!
After all, they have less money and higher unemployment rates that the average so of course they can mastermind a plot to force long time residents out of Roslindale. Plus there's all the pull they have on the City Council.
This is an accurate portrayal
This is an accurate portrayal of the situation. Blaming millennials like the above commenter did is lazy and inaccurate. Most of the active residents have lived there for a number of years and do not even fit into that generation. People do prefer locally-owned businesses but there are a number of chains there now that co-exist in a blend, and people don't exclusively want boutiques either whatever that means. As for the commercial rents, this is a challenge. I wish I knew an easy solution. There's been talk of emulating what other cities and towns have done whether it's with zoning or licensing methods, but so far nothing concrete.
Changing demographics
You can't just pin this on a handful of millenials, as if being born 30 years ago and wanting to start a life for yourself in a nice neighborhood was some crime.
Demographics are changing. Jobs are changing. People are having fewer kids. People are demanding better quality in the services they receive, whether food or haircuts or transportation options. Unemployment is quite low, and incomes for a large number of us are rising (not equally, that's for sure, but well educated peoole in tech or Healthcare or certain sciences are enjoying a fairly prosperous life). The very rich are pushing the rest of us out of large chunks of the city, and as a result neighborhoods are changing. This change is nothing new, it's just the first time it's happened on a large scale in about 50 years. We're going through a massive generational shift as boomers finally retire, the Internet fully makes its power shown, and China and India start spinning off huge amounts of wealth in world changing ways.
That means that lots of related things are going to change, too. Businesses that cater to a clientele that is shrinking - a clientele that values price over all else, that doesn't have an emotional attachment to a business that feels dated or out of touch, etc. - will either have to adapt or die. You can't hide your head in the sand and wish it away. Some of this change is painful, bit change always is. Doesn't mean we can stop it, anymore than we were able to stop the changes wrought by railroads or the industrial revolution or world War 2 or the automobile or telephones or the Internet.
You can lament the change, you can honor the past, you can try to steer it in a positive direction... But there is no stopping change. It is inevitable. Don't sling arrows at the people who are new in the neighborhood. They're not causing the change. They're just the most visible effects of it.
I'm a millenial and I love
I'm a millenial and I love tacos, and am super bummed about this closing because it means another empty storefront sitting vacant while the building rots away and the square gets shabbier. Maybe the reason you think young people have no interest in working with longtime residents is because they're held in suspicion by close minded townies.
more facts!
http://bostinno.streetwise.co/2015/06/11/boston-homebuying-millennial-af...
Millenials have a much harder time affording a home in Boston so again, your whole post is largely nonsense although I guess by adding 'and similar' you've set up a nice cop out.
Does anyone have any hard numbers?
My understanding is that rents in the square are $20-$25 per sf. I think there is some negotiation on certain maintenance issues because most of those buildings are OLD and of pretty mediocre construction and minimally maintained as Adam points out.
That means your typical small store in the square (1000-1500 sf) is paying maybe $1500-$3000 per month. That means if someone is "doubling your rent", assuming you are getting bumped to market rate - you are paying maybe $12-$15 per sf. Something doesn't seem to add up.
I spend a lot of time in the square - and I love the shops and try to patronize them whenever possible - but very few seem to be really crowded that they could afford all these large rent increases. A couple of exceptions to be sure - fornax and a couple of the restaurants are usually busy. But a lot of the time I'm the only person in the shop in the other places. If landlords really are increasing rents like that, I think they are going to find a lot of empty stores very quickly. There may be money - but there's very little volume.
The worst of both worlds
We're losing the old small timers, but we're not getting hip places in return. Where are the cafes? Where are the places for me to buy things for my kids? Why does everything around Adam's park look like the ass-end of Mattapan retail wise? Last weekend saw the annual return of the high end stroller set at the farmer's market, but the rest of that immediate area has nothing to offer them besides wallpaper and Greek fish. On the plus side, Seymore Greene is outta here!
Roslindale is pretty split
If you walk through the BoA parking lot on a Saturday morning it is packed and anecdotally, largely with non-white, non-yuppies, coming to 'downtown' for various errands/business. The venn diagram of the economic classes of Roslindale and where they shop seems to only overlap at the banks, the Village Market, Sebastians barber shop and Chance Liquors.
where do the residents shop?
Where do the middle and high end local residents shop? At local shops or at target, walmart, whole foods, various malls, starbucks, dunkin donuts, etc.....outside the neighborhood? Stores cannot afford higher rents if they are losing customers to somewhere else. Although the restaraunts seem to be doing well.....things may go the direction of Jp with lots of restaraunts, but not much in terms of unique shops.
Centre St in JP
has changed in the past fifteen years but not much. The old videosmith is now Cityfeed; we've had a few restaurants come and go, but the tone has remained strangely the same (though I'm sure rents have gone up). We lost Brigham's. The biggest change I can think of is that Footlocker, formerly Woolworth's, has become a Goodwill which seems to thrive just a few doors down from Boomerang's. Otherwise...what am I forgetting? I like to think that a nice kind of stasis has been reached. The small boutique type stores are still there. There's still a decent smattering of businesses owned by and catering to Latinos, even in the post office area, not to mention Hyde Square and Jackson.
I could worry about Roslindale Square but like JP, I see more newcomers who are young families looking to put down roots, not soulless gentrifiers who are just clamoring for Starbucks. I think, I hope there will be a balance of chains--Staples, DD, etc--boutiques, and the kind of small ethnic stores that have characterized the neighborhood for a long time.
You forgot Caffe Nero
It might not be Starbucks, but it's a UK-lite version of it. A lot of soulless-looking types in there. You had more of an artsy JP crowd when the old Emack & Bolio's was across the street (now The Real Deal)
I'm among those
who didn't really get why we shouldn't welcome Caffe Nero when there are DD's up and down Centre--not exactly soulful. Still--not everyone can afford soul, and I say this as someone who goes out of my way to avoid chains and shop locally and so on. I like a lot of things about Cityfeed, for example, but I can't really afford to shop there and they're not everyone's cup of tea.
The Shopping Disconnect
I suppose I qualify as a "higher end" local resident of Roslindale and I shop at Fornax, Solera (the wine store), the Boston Cheese Cellar, Wallpaper City, Tony's, the Greek Fish Market, and Birch Street Home and Garden to name a few. I also go to the restaurants alot. I think that the business closings in the Square is a combination of what Adam described regarding old landlords who are trying to cash out or up, while having done zero maintenance and upkeep, and some businesses that are just not that great going away (the number of nail and hair businesses in the Square has become a joke). The storefronts that are going vacant tend to need a ton of work and my hunch is that the landlords either see this demographic shift in Roslindale as an opportunity to get a chain to come in and do the maintenance for them, or they are simply delusional and think that more higher income people will trigger a flood of demand at higher rents. There are also some properties with long term, low rent, leases in place that are putting an economic strain on them changing hands. We will no doubt get some chain stores, but chains tend to be pretty savvy in knowing the area they are moving into, and may choose carefully when looking at Roslindale, which has expressed skepticism about wanting chains. We will also no doubt continue to get the small entrepreneurs who open "dream" stores some of which will succeed and some of which will fail. I think that restaurants and other food-related businesses will tend to do well, as they fuel eachother. I also think a cafe would do well (like everyone in Roslindale) and it is a mystery as to why we have not attracted one. Other than that, I don't see a whole lot of "gaps" in the business offerings in the Square.
Gaps in the business offerings
I assume that by gaps in the business offerings you mean roughly the same thing as sales leakage. It's interesting to see what the RVMS market analysis has to say about this. In the primary trade area, there is still sales leakage - some of it quite significant - in every category they list other than "Paint and Wallpaper Stores" and "Pharmacies and Drug Stores". Basically, in those two categories Roslindale actually draws in enough customers from beyond the immediate residential area that their sales actually exceed the local demand.
Now, the leakage in the other categories isn't necessarily easy to capture - as the study notes, "To determine the feasibility of capturing the leakage, it is necessary to evaluate the strength of the competing businesses outside of the trade area that are currently attracting resident expenditures." Still, it does suggest that there are likely still retail opportunities in the square.
High-rent blight
"High-rent blight" -the shuttering of stores in an otherwise thriving area, is happening in many areas of the country. There's a good write-up about it here:
http://www.newyorker.com/business/currency/why-are-there-so-many-shutter...
A few excerpts:
"Abandoned storefronts have long been a hallmark of economic depression and high crime rates, but the West Village doesn’t have either of those. Instead, what it has are extremely high commercial rents, which cause an effect that is not dissimilar. “High-rent blight” happens when rising property values, usually understood as a sign of prosperity, start to inflict damage on the city economics..."
"... the closed storefronts often stay that way, sometimes for years, in an apparent contradiction of the law of supply and demand. If a storefront remains empty for a long time ... basic economics suggest that the price being charged is too high."
"... landlords are willing to lose a tenant and leave a storefront empty as a form of speculation. They’ll trade a short-term loss for the chance eventually to land a much richer tenant, like a bank branch or national retail chain, which might pay a different magnitude of rent."
Speaking for one young family
that has been in Roslindale a scant five years, we have certainly set down roots and feel part of the community. There's a big difference between Rozzie Square and Davis Square in that there is no large student and recent-graduate population here. This, coupled with a better-than-average amount of housing, means that many of the newcomers aren't gentrifiers planning to move to the 'burbs by the time their kids are school age, but families who value living in a vibrant, diverse community.
And as someone who has felt the cold stare of "townies" both in Charlestown and the North End, I can say I never felt more welcome than when we moved to Roslindale, and we're lucky to be here.
I agree....
... overall Roslindale is a remarkably friendly (and diverse) place.
I'd like to know what your
I'd like to know what your definition of diversity is. All I see is white professionals buying houses for 600K+. After a while, it's all the same. So I don't see any 'diversity'. I see streets in JP that were a mixture of black,spanish, white, asian that are now entirely white.
You need to broaden your search in Roslindale
Come up to the Grew Hill area sometime. No, not right in the Square, but still 02131.
I live a few blocks fromn Adam
My street is all of one block long -- and it has white, black, hispanic, mixed and Asian (from India) families; and it has long-time residents (one first lived there 90 years ago, went away for a while but has been back for 50 years or so) and newcomers, retired blue collar workers and young professionals. My church has parishioners from well over 30 nartions/national backgrounds. Not as diverse as Manhattan, but diverse enough for most practical purposes.
Yep 02131 is bigger than the square
Met Hill is not the square in that there are mostly single- and two-family homes, some renters, and a big mix of blue and white collar workers.
This is 2010 data, but I'd argue that in terms of percentages Roslindale may be one of (if not the most) diverse neighborhoods in Boston.
I was once you
Moved here in '97, established a family, am completely locked in to this community. I think that is very typical. Many neighbors and other families we know will say the same thing.
We moved in October of 97
Do you have a few months seniority?
Yes, 4 months
We arrived in May, '97, just ahead of Fornax and the Village Market.
I think even we were here before these opened
Possibly Fornax had just opened -- but Village Market was still something people were waiting for. Or so I recall.
US Census results contradict this
US Census Bureau data contradicts the idea that Roslindale is being inundated with new and wealthy residents.
The data is 5 years old already so maybe things have happened since 2010?
The American Census Survey tries to guess at what's been going on since the last decennial census. (Methodology isn't consistent because, I think, some of my data comes from the BRA while others come from census.gov. - using "neighborhood" as defined by the BRA versus the 02131 ZIP code for the Census.)
The only growth during the past 25 years has been in the Under 5 and some of the 45 - 85 age cohorts.
Not sure if the racial / ethnic breakdown has changed during the past 25 years.
Hey, you know real estate ...
Yes, it's kind of outdated. I wouldn't say the sort of people who would otherwise be putting offers on the 50th floor of Millennium Tower are moving here, but the past couple of years seem to have seen an influx of people priced out of JP looking at Roslindale, which, of course, means rising prices here.
Past couple of years?
The flow from JP to Roslindale has been going on since the 1990s.
Of course, after they get all settled in, they assimilate to Roslindale culture. I would imagine some of the early settlers now gripe of the newcomers journeying south of Forest Hills and mucking things up. Of course, if people knew the mix in Jamaica Plain in the 1990s, they wouldn't be surprised.
Trends continue
Yes.
I can't think of any reason this trend hasn't continued. Your neighborhood is being hollowed out (ruined?) because it's not attracting new blood - not the opposite. Perhaps local stores are closing - and some chains are moving in - because of that.
West Broadway in South Boston is probably a good comparison.
Whose neighborhood?
What figures do you have to show that new people are NOT moving into Roslindale?
Not sure about his data
First, it doesn't seem to say what he claims about the under five population (though I do have to squint to read it, so maybe). Second, it is a comparison between two periods when the number of addresses in the zip code changed (recall the West Roxbury cession).
Census doesn't reveal any outward "migration"
The Boston Globe did a sloppy article several years back, noting that Roslindale had lost a couple thousand residents in previous years while West Roxbury grew by roughly the same amount. What the star reporter failed to report was the changes to the 02131 and 02132 zip code boundaries, which accounted for the net loss and gain in both neighborhood populations since the last census was taken. D'oh!
No one on here has blamed
No one on here has blamed parking (too much or too little) or bicycles (too many or too few) for the seeming demise of Roslindale? What is UHub coming to these days?
speaking of bikes...
Commercial rents in the square/village weren't affordable more than two years ago when we were looking to relocate the Busted Knuckle. Thankfully, we found a great landlord and space outside of that area which we are able to swing, financially. I'd like to think we do our part to add to the revitalization of the neighborhood, not the demise. Small businesses will not come (unless prospective owners have a sizable amount of money set aside in savings) when the asking rate for a hole in the wall is astronomical (Recently saw a complete wreck of a restaurant space on Craigslist for $3k/month NNN) and most likely, that lease does not cover anything other than the space. Which leaves the leaser to foot the bill for construction/improvements as well as utilities in addition to rent. So, this is why there are so many shabby storefronts. Service oriented businesses, in the face of the internet, are going to be the ones that survive. Boutique shops are going to be expensive in order to deflect high rents. So many people don't want to spend money and iff seeking a deal wins over supporting the little guy (think Amazon vs. Village Books for example), there will be even more vacancies. Bottom line, I don't know what to do about the greed, I don't know that there is anything to be done (if I owned commercial property, I'd do things a lot differently), but if there's a business you love, keep supporting them. Tell your friends about them. Help to keep the doors of the businesses we do have open.
Fines
The city could levy fines for vacant storefronts? Or do they already do that? There'd have to be some complexities, like you get so many months before the fines start. Probably others. I'm not saying this is a good idea (or a bad one), but it would help tip that balance.
Thank you for your investment
Thank you for your investment in the community. Also thank you for the bicycle etching on the side of your building on Walworth St. Adds some cool color to the area.
Thanks so much for the kind
Thanks so much for the kind words. For those asking about landlords, this may be of help: http://www.cityofboston.gov/assessing
Rozzie rents
Who is/are the landlord(s)?
You're reminding me of the last time this happened
Around 1990. At that time the landlords were disparaged by ethnicity. Judging by the theory behind this rent increase trend, they are probably different owners now.
Varies
On the inner block of the square:
Most of Birch plus a couple around the block on Corinth were owned by Stavros (?) who passed away last year. Then there's the Emerald Society - police fraternal group- and then the yellow building is owned by the model train club upstairs - we rent to the two gift shops, the seamstress and the florist. Steve, the owner of Delfino, owns that building. Not sure about the old bakery. Sounds like a gentlemen by the name of Vinny Marino owned a lot of the buildings along Washington, but he's older and sounds like he's selling off some property. Can't tell you much about the outer side of the streets.