Change of plans for Matthew: We're no longer in the Cone of Probability

Read the 11 a.m. discussion by the National Hurricane Center, you know, the people who spend their days going over the results from computer models based on the latest satellite, buoy and dropsonde data;

Some track models keep the hurricane moving eastward across the Atlantic while the GFS and the ECMWF reduce the hurricane's forward speed with a southward turn. This change in these two valuable models is reflected in the current NHC forecast.

Or if you simply don't trust government professionals, there's always Dr. Jeff Masters at Weather Underground, who also says the storm might head south to hit Florida and the Bahamas again:

Thanks to my advancing years and a low-stress lifestyle that features daily meditation, there’s not much that can move me to profanity—except the occasional low-skill driver who endangers my life on the road. But this morning while looking at the latest weather model runs, multiple very bad words escaped my lips. I’ve been a meteorologist for 35 years, and am not easily startled by a fresh set of model results: situations in 2005 and 1992 are the only ones that come to mind. However, this morning’s depiction by our top models—the GFS, European, and UKMET—of Matthew missing getting picked up by the trough to its north this weekend and looping back to potentially punish The Bahamas and Florida next week was worthy of profuse profanity. While a loop back towards Florida and The Bahamas next week is not yet a sure thing, the increasing trend of our top models in that direction is a strong indication that Matthew will be around for a very long time. Long-range forecasts of wind shear are not very reliable, but this morning’s wind shear forecast from the 00Z run of the European model does show a low to moderate shear environment over the Bahamas and waters surrounding South Florida late next week, potentially supportive of a hurricane--if Matthew survives the high wind shear of 50+ knots expected to affect the storm early next week. The bottom line is that it currently appears that Matthew will not recurve out to sea early next week, and The Bahamas and Florida may have to deal with the storm again next week.

One of the interesting things about reading up on hurricanes (at least for me, YMMV) is learning that hurricanes just don't go where they want, that there are other large, even if generally benign, forces out there that really guide where the hurricanes go. It becomes a giant morass of moving pieces that can be difficult to figure out, especially over the long term (like, say, five days or more), and makes you better appreciate the need to throw some supercomputers at the issue.