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Dorian this morning

Dorian clouds spread over New England

This photo, snapped at 6:50 a.m. by the GOES-16 satellite, shows that even though Dorian is still centered on the North Carolina coast, its cloud bands are already here. At 9:20 a.m., on NWS Boston-area radar, you could see a rain band from it approaching Nantucket.

NWS has issued a tropical-storm warning for the Cape and Islands and a high-surf advisory for the coast north of the Cape into New Hampshire - except for Boston Harbor and adjacent waters. Rain and winds are expected to start tonight.

Satellite image from NOAA's Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch, which has a way cool interface for looking at current satellite images of the Atlantic basin.

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Comments

This one’s a whopper. And Magoo ain’t talkin’ ‘bout the BK. Magoo.

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Grateful that the doomsday predictions from two weeks one week three days ago never materialized here in the United States. That's not a criticism of the forecasters involved, just a reminder that even the latest technology has limitations and at best these predictions are an educated guess. Good practice for when something like the Great New England Hurricane of 1938 hits again. It's been 81 years, we're overdue.

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You might feel differently if you lived in Bahamas.

Dorian is the most intense landfalling hurricane in history. While it technically tied the Great Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 when it smacked into Abaco, the 1935 hurricane was only approximately estimated, not measured.

Dorian isn't done yet, either. The monster just made a second landfall in NC and is dumping rain like crazy and surging and shredding as he goes. It is estimated to be a STILL tropical hurricane (cat 1) moving 40+ mph linearly and 80+ mph in a circle when it smashes the Maritimes. In other words, it is going in like a high speed mowing machine and not slowing down until it clears Newfoundland and then?

US maps don't show her, but Canadan trackers have TS Gabrielle headed for a hook up with Dorian off Greenland. She may be a hurricane by then, too. They're going to meet BoJo for brexfast.

This is heavy shit.

And we still don't know what it is going to do to us. Small changes could mean we are spared, but could also mean big trouble given the size and power of this storm. I'm just hoping to blow out of town before it effs up Logan Armpit,

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Logan armpit! Mondo LOLs and Mondo ROTFLOLs. Magoo.

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Dorian is the most intense landfalling hurricane in history. While it technically tied the Great Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 when it smacked into Abaco, the 1935 hurricane was only approximately estimated, not measured.

The problem with that statement is that the comparisons of Dorion with the "Great Labor Day of 1935" or any storm prior to the satellite and radar era is hit or miss. Absent a measurement at the place where the storm came ashore -- purely by chance -- there is no real means of comparison of magnitudes -- e.g. the Saffir Simpson Scale

In the era post the invention of the telegraph and its global spread [say 1900] --- If you had a barometer at the place where the Hurricane made landfall or an anemometer an even rarer instrument --- you could get a measurement. Otherwise you just recorded the destruction post the event -- high water marks on the walls, ships sinking, trees cut down in their prime and of course human casualties. Most of the time the Hurricane made landfall where there was no official and formal means of recording the event. Prior to the Telegraph there might be a "Legend" where some old timers recalled this or that Great Blow.

Even the Great 1938 event -- can only be characterized roughly as even then [telephone and radio] the Coast of Long Island where it made landfall was not very populated and had few instruments directly in the path of the storm. After it made landfall a 2nd time on the Connecticut Shore and then raced up the Connecticut River Valley through Vt and NH there were reporting stations but it was somewhat weakened. Nevertheless -- the 1938 New England Hurricane:

  1. leveled an estimated 2 billion trees in New York and New England
  2. http://www.newenglandhistoricalsociety.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/19...
    The Northern Kraft Paper Mill in Howland, Maine. In 1947, the mill still used wood cut from trees downed by the Great 1938 hurricane.

  3. blew down part of the Cog Railway on Mount Washington with gusts of 163 mph at the Weather Observatory on the Summit
  4. 937 mb pressure on the southern coast of Long Island
  5. Storm Surge flooded the fanciest Hotel Ballroom in Providence to near the ceiling

    The tide was higher than usual because of the autumnal equinox and full moon, and the hurricane produced storm tides of 14 to 18 feet (5 m) along most of the Connecticut coast, with 18 to 25-foot (8 m) tides from New London, Connecticut east to Cape Cod—including the entire coastline of Rhode Island.

  6. 10 to 17 inches of rain fell in the CT River Valley
  7. washed away bridges on the Farmington River [near Hartford CT] and the Chickopee Falls Bridge on the Chickopee River [MA}
  8. winds were reported above 100 MPH in both Boston and NYC essentially simultaneously
  9. Blue Hill Observatory south of Boston @ 600 ft above sea level recorded a 186 mph gust
  10. 50 ft Wave was recorded @ Gloucester
  11. "Old Ironsides”–the U.S.S. Constitution–was torn from its moorings in Boston Navy Yard
  12. 2,605 vessels were destroyed & additional 3,369 damaged
  13. The storm entered Vermont as a Category 1 hurricane at approximately 6:00 pm EDT, reaching northern Vermont, Burlington, and Lake Champlain around 8:00 pm.

    Hurricane-force winds caused extensive damage to trees, buildings, and power lines. Over 2,000 miles (3,200 km) of public roads were blocked, and it took months for crews to reopen some of the roads.

    In Montpelier, 120 miles (190 km) from the nearest coast, salt spray was seen on windows. A train was derailed in Castleton. The storm killed five people in Vermont. Maple and sugar groves were damaged. The 1938 hurricane has been the only tropical cyclone to make a direct hit on Vermont in its recorded history; it remains the only one known to have struck Vermont as a hurricane.

[from Wiki [most of the quotes] and various other sources Google 1938 Hurricane]

Overall -- The lack of direct instrumental data for the vast majority of the period when westerners were hereabouts [1600+] let alone the pre-Columbus era's total lack of any information makes the statement "Xest in history" -- a far less significant statement.

Let's just say in the modern era of the past 40 years Dorion is one of the strongest landfalling hurricanes in the Atlantic

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the Alabama predictions?

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73kEWHpXDmRqamlbKFAFjpa1pgdrKZz03SwujqxPKwuCPOc5/pbianfVqIv3YufJbMRpO54/w37TQemos2UlT0YRp0xPaMXg9fvaVMgHvPxHkfMSWtugAOfMZDwZg1Gmqghx4W/uGhEnqAXUC/eZp0Fwc6XJOQPFnvn0t/MSpqT3l81hb+YrW1z37wGINSxcm9tIyIMxY2ckWGmmvpFpnNlVjYDY2iklv6htpppv5Qp+KwdsqqDqRoB5wb1sdCU2vZPw33tF0F6Y8ZBvZBmPvPKXOHYB66+I5aI9kAWaoOpPITocLhUprlRQoHT9TzmeWb0aYYfZz9DhdYrpTRb75iWPy5y5Q4XXT2aqD/wBB/ebUJTKbfLLVFLhHOdpTiRhqgY0XuMtiCCcxtvfzmPXwVeiqj7McoUDwHNaw10nR9ofEaNL89Vfgt2P0mxCE3HgjKCnyed0Maj7NY9DowPQgyzadXxDg1CsLVKanodiPQiYx7IWJyYioByBs1veZpj1CfJnl078GNaOiQE0GYIQvFEACBEIQALxrqCLHX1jokAKFXglBjc0lv5afSQt2codGHozfvNURY2gMtOztAEHKbjqxPvnaYwF8BoPZH0Npgze4JUzUKtLyNvf/ADKcq1Zfhe2jHpBQpFTNmsMv8wG/3hO2n6e6KEADCpmz6WiHe1TN7On6e6SRBjl1yhyQmtv4jO8Nstzlv/h1j0ucockLyMbnNgt/Bfe2sYhzNlzKpuhOptIsTTADoGBVlsT5H9ZIahAZQfCTvaGfLcLZgRbURDMQ4eo5prUyNUFwhXQnld+lhO0wGHNKmi3BsJy+Hwow2LWqCrpWGVr6lGPMdLzr7WsdPSY82nRuw7RU4tw1MRSZKgBVuXMHqJw1T/TyrmDU8UQqaLf2lB5CeiFdM3K+0COfylJcYvZjs0mFRshzM2rsdz1m3uRlH8w9q5At5Q39nprrAZy2Nw5o4oZAQK+unKoNT8RrM3jfHUolVVXeuGJsupt6DnOj7UYcvQDU7ipSIqKfMbj3i8894VjhT4ka9QgKabspOx0GnyM0QyNQM08aczQ4f2zR7msjobgBrErfox5GdRTZSCWJ1Hh8/Wcl2lxFEYOrRpsjFnSrpa96jZiB6Tb7OIww6CsWDhRa+56XlmKbldlWXGo00bGrG1QkG1l0+AljheG+0PY/0qJsf/I+/wAB9ZUxOIbKzMbFVslxzOizqeE4MUqSUxyAuerHUmRzS8EsMfJbAtoIsLwmc0BCIIt4AZGJ8WMpryp02b3kgD9ZrmY/DPFicQ/5clMe4Zj/APKbEACEIQA8+MBCE6ZygheEUiABCFoCABeF4l4sACKIkWMAlnAYvu2zcjofQytIcV7BkWrVDTp2dD2gwqq2c38QGW21/OZtrn7wkaafoJt8PcYmgaTHxqNDz8jMWoviIq3BAsPUSqDfD8F+Rf2QIc2VajEKBpI8x0Qnw33MeGLZQ5IAGhtGDkpPhudZYVj2ewKAgqTvb5wqNkLKCGBFr/5tEara6A+Ene0RiFLKCCDziQC1Fy3F1bMvTYxg7RNTVGemDrlYA+K42Nuhkynuzpla49d5znaVe5y4gZSWFrEX1vz6G0ry41Itx5HE7rBVmdBUZQt9ct76ecny3ueU53gPFGrlShC00UXB9pjz05CdFa4J5X2mFqjenatFXi2N7qm1UIzBdwup9ZgU8RVcmsp10YKNsvOdQ4zX00tqJjngP3ilKjBFNynI+V+ksg4q7ITUnVGo6LVQDKbMNR7p5/2q4XRSn3AQlg33Xo+gHunowF7BRrOQ7W0M+Jwyj2rsxHku3zhi+wsq/EzOGdkcNTUMysaoIIvt56ToVA1zk3A0/aOBFiWJ7y+kVyDmLkh9LafWbUq4MDbfJDjqzHuFbZ69JTcbqLn6idzPOuK8RytT7wN4KtJ0a2m+Ug9NDO0OObvCFClAoN77k9Jky/Y2YvqaMJQ/3IckY+gkFCktYtq6MDtmINvSVlhq3nm/EePYjGYmvh8NWFFKCk3tq7C9x5bTsa9RsObsWekfaJ1ZP3E8/wCMcJr4SvVxWGp99Sr2Ph3XW5Fud4AR8M4tisAlHE1qgqUsQ/3iEeJT+a/unrFCqGUMNiAR755DUw+K4kVpfZjSprUzlmFgq2sQAff8Z65hKARFQbKAB7haAUTQhCAHn0IWhOmcoIsS8AIAKYhixI0AsQRYkYgjjEyxYmMDIcV7B931k0hxfsn1H1iAu4LFNTYOvL5jnOgxuFTEp3tM+IDUdfIzmRLXDsc1Jsy+8ciJXOF7XJbjmlp8CBixC1DYAaaRuYkKhNlBNiROgxWETFKKiNYgai3ymAxbSmxsAeY2ihK/2SnCt+BRXIU09Mt97frGl8mZfCQef7R2fTu9CC3tWjX8OZLhgef7SSIDyO7uPC2Zfh/MjNEDKzqrA62Ot/WSG1M65WuvwvG5MmVjZri9oAMwyCnVpVbKFYlLDz1F50dudtJy/EMIzUtCBm9k32I2PlDD8UxNJA1ZBUpiwdkNmB01y8xM2bG27RqwZUlTOpIvqo0h6A7axlFw4zp7J1j9/ZmY1C6aZb35zjMTVNTiByk3prkA5gnU2+U692sLi9wCT7pwfZ+t3hNZb53q1D7gbC3uEuwK5WU53+B0JtYlie8vGkg5i7HNy84thYkk95faNqPcsXJDcvObDEOekKoZKxsGQqLjrsZrdlGVqWUj7ykclS+9xsfeLGZLtmJzkggaaR2HxDU3FZBcgZaqjeog2Yf9hrKM0L2i7DOtM7HLGimL5ranc84zCYpKiB0N1O38+cmmY1EOYOrC2moNxp/MyuFoEy21z5swHsjppympjGYL4Bfr6c7SDg9MBDa+533gBdC+UWELwAIQEIAee3gJGcOvSJ9nXp8zOocknhaQ/Zl8/iYfZxyJ+MKGTxLSLuf+zfGHcn87QoCW0JF3LfnPygKbfn+QiAmES0iyP+b5RQr/AJh8IASSLF+z7x9YWfqvzkWKz2/DuIAW4GRXfovxgGf8o+MAL2Cxj0jmU+o5H1m8K1HFLZrJU5f5znJhn/L844VG/L89ZCUE9lsMnbo2cZw6pTGQgFSR4gPrKROXMnhN7a9PSWcD2hqoMrJmX5zR+1YasCMpRm30sfdK+6UeSaUZfVmOwFMkEK1xoekYnhILAMDyvNF+Eutyqd4CNOo6SkaD0yC9Fjvyv9JJZIicJLwNWnls5F1J2v8AKNK/it4L7fpGd5lszKSl9rGN78e1Y5L6jWSRBlrg2JAd6QbKosyC+uU7jzsZu7+zecVj8MlRmdVNrAA3IKH15gzQpcUrKuVcui6sb3A5kzJPE3LRsx5Uo7Je2+ONLCnISGeyXHnvM3hNFEp0RTDBtdPdv6zFxdWpicVTps7PTXx7W1H1HnOmC2amUzZ/Fy0t5SzCu1OyvNLu4JyRYsSe8vtK9WjnqCo5OdRofPzE0FwDsL2Oe/ukqcIqNmLCzcttZb3xXkpcJPwUmYvcubEDTzhTqFsoLZco0M1BwSq+rkDTTb5yRuAMbZnUW0FpH5IjWKRk4PEPSYvSsc3t0zorH8yH8LfWb/DeI0qrEqxD2Gam2hXzt+so4jAhStIuCACbrbN7+smo8NwrAMzqTyfZ7dLjWUT7W9GmHctM27xJg1KndELTxgIH4alm08m3lat2krKxAoK4GzB7X+MgoSfgm5xXLN9MfTL92GGe17SzOJxXFs5zNhCG5MrgMPQyKh24am1q1GrkA1bLcgjqBuPON45LwJZIvyd3CctT7d4cgHJWsf8Axt+0vYftXhGUHvQvk1ww9QRI9r9D7l7OYMIQnTOWhbwGsIRgFooEIQGLeAMISIAYQhBALIMVsP7hCEGBNFvCEYGVxLjYpOKYptUa2ay8h1lrhmPWvTFRNtRY7gjcGEJC90WOK7bK/F+OU8OVV73bpy8zH8S4vToorvfK21vPWLCJyexqK0SHtWtGmlXvGCv7PP4ibdPtiRTFV8pQi4JFtIQke1S5RLuceGNwvbrDVFZyq5F38j75FS7Z4SpfusO7gEZiAMvuvvCEr7EyxzaTL9bj9IAd3hr362W3rD/eFYnNSFiPZFre+EJYsMSv5pIy8Dx0tiatRKSgIFpKLaaan6y9W485dbKo0PKEI/ij6IvLL2OPGqh5L8JXqcQqMLFvhoYQkljj6D5JeyE13/M3xMjqOT7TN/7jCEfavRFyfsbwJUrVXcNcU/DudzvExeCFKoV8QRtUN9Nd1hCZO9/IbJQXxFd+HIb3vrvrJxQtoGNokJsoxMU0v+7SjxesUpmxYlgbaXHnCEGKPJLw2iwpIM1tBvylg0L7kfARIQTDk//Z)

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Thanks for sharing that!

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Dorian manifested as a prolonged shower with strong winds extremely early Saturday morning in Boston.

Very refreshing!

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