We've entered the Cone of Uncertainty for Dorian four days out

Short term weather has a lot of factors that make single days or even a whole season an outlier but the long term average trend can be forecast with high certainty.

Where did that comment come from???? -- the only thing that can be forecast with a high degree of certainty about the earth's climate is that there are warm times and there are cold times. While there are a number of significant semi-periodic events such as changes in the orbital eccentricity, variability in the Solar Cycle -- No one can predict with any degree of certainty the myriad of individual purely random events and which acting either independently or collaboratively can have dramatic effects on climate.

For example consider the Indonesian Volcano Tambora -- it erupted in a Giga Explosion in 1815 in the midst of an already low-activity phase of Sunspots [proxy for Solar Activity] called the Dalton Minimum [1780–1840] "DM"

Consider the observations of the effects of both on the Global and Regional Climates as discussed by
Anet, J. G., Muthers, S., Rozanov, E. V., Raible, C. C., Stenke, A., Shapiro, A. I., Brönnimann, S., Arfeuille, F., Brugnara, Y., Beer, J., Steinhilber, F., Schmutz, W., and Peter, T.:
in the Impact of solar versus volcanic activity variations on tropospheric temperatures and precipitation during the Dalton Minimum,
published in the the on-line EU journal Climate of the Past, 10, 921–938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-921-2014, 2014.
see *1 for the abstract if you are interested [and a link to the full paper if you really are interested]

and a popular-interest article on the explosive eruption of Mt. Tambora by Robert Evans in SMITHSONIAN MAGAZINE -- where he states:

The major eruptions ended in mid-July, but Tambora’s ejecta would have profound, enduring effects. Great quantities of sulfurous gas from the volcano mixed with water vapor in the air. Propelled by stratospheric winds, a haze of sulfuric acid aerosol, ash and dust circled the earth and blocked sunlight.

In China and Tibet, unseasonably cold weather killed trees, rice, and even water buffalo. Floods ruined surviving crops. In the northeastern United States, the weather in mid-May of 1816 turned “backward,” as locals put it, with summer frost striking New England and as far south as Virginia. “In June . . . another snowfall came and folk went sleighing,” Pharaoh Chesney, of Virginia, would later recall. “On July 4, water froze in cisterns and snow fell again, with Independence Day celebrants moving inside churches where hearth fires warmed things a mite.” Thomas Jefferson, having retired to Monticello after completing his second term as President, had such a poor corn crop that year that he applied for a $1,000 loan.

As Anet, et al state in their Conclusion [my highlights in BOLD}:

The results show that volcanic eruptions alone cannot explain the long-lasting negative surface air temperature anomaly during the DM found in different NH temperature
reconstructions.....We thus conclude that volcanic eruptions might have triggered the cold period from 1809 on, but that this cold time was maintained after 1816 by a lower solar irradiance. Without the decrease in solar irradiance, our model suggests that temperatures would have recovered to pre-1809 temperatures from 1820 on, except in the deep-layer ocean, in which the volcanic signal seems to dominate over the solar signal.

Moral of the story -- Climate like weather is very complicated -- I wouldn't make bets on predictions

Refs:
*1

Impact of solar versus volcanic activity variations on tropospheric temperatures and precipitation during the Dalton Minimum
J. G. Anet1, S. Muthers2,3, E. V. Rozanov1,4, C. C. Raible2,3, A. Stenke1, A. I. Shapiro4, S. Brönnimann3,5, F. Arfeuille3,5, Y. Brugnara3,5, J. Beer6, F. Steinhilber6, W. Schmutz4, and T. Peter1
1Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science ETH, Zurich, Switzerland
2Climate and Environment Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
3Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
4Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos and World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC), Davos, Switzerland
5Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
6Eawag, Surface Waters group, Dübendorf, Switzerland
Received: 21 Oct 2013 – Discussion started: 04 Nov 2013 – Revised: 21 Mar 2014 – Accepted: 23 Mar 2014 – Published: 09 May 2014
Abstract. The aim of this work is to elucidate the impact of changes in solar irradiance and energetic particles versus volcanic eruptions on tropospheric global climate during the Dalton Minimum (DM, AD 1780–1840). Separate variations in the (i) solar irradiance in the UV-C with wavelengths λ < 250 nm, (ii) irradiance at wavelengths λ > 250 nm, (iii) in energetic particle spectrum, and (iv) volcanic aerosol forcing were analyzed separately, and (v) in combination, by means of small ensemble calculations using a coupled atmosphere–ocean chemistry–climate model. Global and hemispheric mean surface temperatures show a significant dependence on solar irradiance at λ > 250 nm. Also, powerful volcanic eruptions in 1809, 1815, 1831 and 1835 significantly decreased global mean temperature by up to 0.5 K for 2–3 years after the eruption. However, while the volcanic effect is clearly discernible in the Southern Hemispheric mean temperature, it is less significant in the Northern Hemisphere, partly because the two largest volcanic eruptions occurred in the SH tropics and during seasons when the aerosols were mainly transported southward, partly because of the higher northern internal variability. In the simulation including all forcings, temperatures are in reasonable agreement with the tree ring-based temperature anomalies of the Northern Hemisphere. Interestingly, the model suggests that solar irradiance changes at λ < 250 nm and in energetic particle spectra have only an insignificant impact on the climate during the Dalton Minimum. This downscales the importance of top–down processes (stemming from changes at λ < 250 nm) relative to bottom–up processes (from λ > 250 nm). Reduction of irradiance at λ > 250 nm leads to a significant (up to 2%) decrease in the ocean heat content (OHC) between 0 and 300 m in depth, whereas the changes in irradiance at λ < 250 nm or in energetic particles have virtually no effect. Also, volcanic aerosol yields a very strong response, reducing the OHC of the upper ocean by up to 1.5%. In the simulation with all forcings, the OHC of the uppermost levels recovers after 8–15 years after volcanic eruption, while the solar signal and the different volcanic eruptions dominate the OHC changes in the deeper ocean and prevent its recovery during the DM. Finally, the simulations suggest that the volcanic eruptions during the DM had a significant impact on the precipitation patterns caused by a widening of the Hadley cell and a shift in the intertropical convergence zone.

How to cite: Anet, J. G., Muthers, S., Rozanov, E. V., Raible, C. C., Stenke, A., Shapiro, A. I., Brönnimann, S., Arfeuille, F., Brugnara, Y., Beer, J., Steinhilber, F., Schmutz, W., and Peter, T.: Impact of solar versus volcanic activity variations on tropospheric temperatures and precipitation during the Dalton Minimum, Clim. Past, 10, 921–938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-921-2014, 2014.

*2

Blast from the Past
The eruption of Mount Tambora killed thousands, plunged much of the world into a frightful chill and offers lessons for today.
By Robert Evans
SMITHSONIAN MAGAZINE JULY 2002

The most destructive explosion on earth in the past 10,000 years was the eruption of an obscure volcano in Indonesia called MountTambora. More than 13,000 feet high, Tambora blew up in 1815 and blasted 12 cubic miles of gases, dust and rock into the atmosphere and onto the island of Sumbawa and the surrounding area. Rivers of incandescent ash poured down the mountain’s flanks and burned grasslands and forests. The ground shook, sending tsunamis racing across the JavaSea. An estimated 10,000 of the island’s inhabitants died instantly.

The eruption of Mount Tambora killed thousands, plunged much of the world into a frightful chill and offers lessons for today. (Greg Harlin/Wood Ronsaville Harlin)
Blast from the Past
The eruption of Mount Tambora killed thousands, plunged much of the world into a frightful chill and offers lessons for today
By Robert Evans
SMITHSONIAN MAGAZINE | SUBSCRIBE
JULY 2002
34110153.6K
The most destructive explosion on earth in the past 10,000 years was the eruption of an obscure volcano in Indonesia called MountTambora. More than 13,000 feet high, Tambora blew up in 1815 and blasted 12 cubic miles of gases, dust and rock into the atmosphere and onto the island of Sumbawa and the surrounding area. Rivers of incandescent ash poured down the mountain’s flanks and burned grasslands and forests. The ground shook, sending tsunamis racing across the JavaSea. An estimated 10,000 of the island’s inhabitants died instantly.

200 Years After Tambora, Some Unusual Effects Linger
It’s the eruption’s far-flung consequences, however, that have most intrigued scholars and scientists. They have studied how debris from the volcano shrouded and chilled parts of the planet for many months, contributing to crop failure and famine in North America and epidemics in Europe. Climate experts believe that Tambora was partly responsible for the unseasonable chill that afflicted much of the Northern Hemisphere in 1816, known as the “year without a summer.” ....
The eruption of Tambora was ten times more powerful than that of Krakatau, which is 900 miles away. But Krakatau is more widely known, partly because it erupted in 1883, after the invention of the telegraph, which spread the news quickly. Word of Tambora traveled no faster than a sailing ship, limiting its notoriety. ...

A few hours west of Bima, the huge bulk of Tambora begins to dominate the horizon. Formerly a cone or double-cone, it’s now shaped like a turtle’s shell: the eruption reduced the mountain’s height by more than 4,000 feet.....

In repose for thousands of years, the volcano began rumbling in early April of 1815. Soldiers hundreds of miles away on Java, thinking they heard cannon fire, went looking for a battle. Then, on April 10, came the volcano’s terrible finale: three columns of fire shot from the mountain, and a plume of smoke and gas reached 25 miles into the atmosphere. Fire-generated winds uprooted trees. Pyroclastic flows, or incandescent ash, poured down the slopes at more than 100 miles an hour, destroying everything in their paths and boiling and hissing into the sea 25 miles away. Huge floating rafts of pumice trapped ships at harbor.

Throughout the region, ash rained down for weeks. Houses hundreds of miles from the mountain collapsed under the debris. Sources of fresh water, always scarce, became contaminated. Crops and forests died. All told, it was the deadliest eruption in history, killing an estimated 90,000 people on Sumbawa and neighboring Lombok, most of them by starvation. The major eruptions ended in mid-July, but Tambora’s ejecta would have profound, enduring effects. Great quantities of sulfurous gas from the volcano mixed with water vapor in the air. Propelled by stratospheric winds, a haze of sulfuric acid aerosol, ash and dust circled the earth and blocked sunlight.

In China and Tibet, unseasonably cold weather killed trees, rice, and even water buffalo. Floods ruined surviving crops. In the northeastern United States, the weather in mid-May of 1816 turned “backward,” as locals put it, with summer frost striking New England and as far south as Virginia. “In June . . . another snowfall came and folk went sleighing,” Pharaoh Chesney, of Virginia, would later recall. “On July 4, water froze in cisterns and snow fell again, with Independence Day celebrants moving inside churches where hearth fires warmed things a mite.” Thomas Jefferson, having retired to Monticello after completing his second term as President, had such a poor corn crop that year that he applied for a $1,000 loan.

Failing crops and rising prices in 1815 and 1816 threatened American farmers. Odd as it may seem, the settling of the American heartland was apparently shaped by the eruption of a volcano 10,000 miles away. Thousands left New England for what they hoped would be a more hospitable climate west of the Ohio River. Partly as a result of such migration, Indiana became a state in 1816 and Illinois in 1818.

Climate experts say that 1816 wasn’t the coldest year on record, but the long cold snap that coincided with the June-to-September growing season was a hardship. “The summer of 1816 marked the point at which many New England farmers who had weighed the advantages of going west made up their minds to do so,” the oceanographer Henry Stommel and his wife, Elizabeth, wrote in their 1983 book about Tambora’s global effects, Volcano Weather...

In Europe and Great Britain, far more than the usual amount of rain fell in the summer of 1816. It rained nonstop in Ireland for eight weeks. The potato crop failed. Famine ensued. The widespread failure of corn and wheat crops in Europe and Great Britain led to what historian John D. Post has called “the last great subsistence crisis in the western world.” After hunger came disease. Typhus broke out in Ireland late in 1816, killing thousands, and over the next couple of years spread through the British Isles.

Researchers today are careful not to blame every misery of those years on the Tambora eruption, because by 1815 a cooling trend was already under way. Also, there’s little evidence that the eruption affected climate in the Southern Hemisphere. In much of the Northern Hemisphere, though, there prevailed “rather sudden and often extreme changes in surface weather after the eruption of Tambora, lasting from one to three years,” according to a 1992 collection of scientific studies titled The Year Without a Summer?: World Climate in 1816.

Read more: https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/blast-from-the-past-65102374/#Fc6...