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How predictive were we here?

There was a survey posted here on Universal Hub back on October 22nd regarding the ballot questions. I summed up the results at 217 responses to get a feel for what each question's outcome would be based on our limited and biased sample. Let's see how well we predicted the final voter population...

In each case, I'll compare my count to the percentages reported at boston.com.

Question 1:
We said, 48 - Yes and 169 - No. The Nays won with percentages of 22% to 78%.
Boston.com reported the electorate as 30% to 70%.

Question 2:
We said, 176 - Yes and 41 - No. The Yays won 81% to 19%.
Boston.com reported it as 65% to 35%.

Question 3:
We said, 144 - Yes and 73 - No. The Yays won 66% to 34%.
Boston.com had the state as 56% to 44%.

The total vote tally was 287 but I didn't have a per question breakdown of the results at the final vote, so anyone else is welcome to add that in the comments below. It's fairly impressive that we did get all of the questions correctly and the most chosen response of the 287 votes was "No, Yes, Yes" (47%) which is how the election ended up. We are evidently more pot friendly and dog friendly than the general public. But to be within 8% at our best similarity and no worse than 16% from such a self-selected survey result is pretty interesting. Maybe Somerville should have been voting to dissolve their government and put *us* in charge. Hehe.

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Comments

Put Uhub polls in charge with a requirement that the poll has to win by 60 percent to pass (as opposed to 50 plus 1) and you just saved the commonwealth quite a bit of money my friend.

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I was surprised at how close we came on #1. While I expected the question to be voted down, I didn't expect that wide a margin.

Suldog
http://jimsuldog.blogspot.com

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It's always fun to take a crack at some numbers without always having to break out all of the rigor.

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