Looks like Mother Nature decided to pull an early April Fool's prank
By adamg on Sun, 03/20/2016 - 7:18am
We go to sleep Saturday night after disappointing the kidlet with the news there might not be any snow at all and wake up Sunday morning to find, oh, we've got ourselves a winter-storm warning, the computer models have changed again and now we could get up to 7 inches of snow. And heavy, wet snow, the kind that sticks to power lines and tree limbs and makes the electricity go off. Gah! So get that snow shovel out of the shed and rush out to your nearest food mart to get all the essentials.
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bahhh
This sucks. I was hoping it would stay D-3" , but apparently not.
Tomorrow morning's commute is going to suuuck in a big way.
Some of the flowers have started to poke thru and some trees have stared having small buds. I hope they survive. :-/
Poor Man's Fertilizer
Plants should be fine as long as we don't have a bad freeze! Let it snow (and melt quickly please)
http://gardenrant.com/2015/02/poor-mans-fertilizer.html
Remember 1997?
Way worse, but the trees were fine. They've had a while to get this freeze-thaw thing sorted out.
Some of the flowers will get smooshed, but most tulips and daffodils are adapted to freeze/thaw as well.
As for the emergent Siberian Iris? "Is brisk, da!"
Lots of tree damage from the 1997 storm
I recall the wet snow snapping lots of branches off, all over the city. The Arboretum suffered substantial damage.
http://arnoldia.arboretum.harvard.edu/pdf/articles/1997-57-4-arnold-arbo...
http://arnoldia.arboretum.harvard.edu/pdf/articles/1997-57-1-storms-and-...
"Indeed, no single weather event since the 1938 hurricane has altered the Arboretum’s landscape as did the blizzard of April 1, 1997. "
"Within three weeks the curatorial staff had surveyed the entire Arboretum property and identified a total of 1,705 damaged plants, or 13 percent of the Arboretum’s total accessions."
Non-native species in the arboretum
Bear in mind that there are a lot of trees in the Arboretum which are not native to New England.
Native species were damaged, but seemed to do just fine.
myths of "native" superiority
How much storm damage an individual tree suffers is related to its existing structure & habit - whether genetically determined or managed - rather than which landmass on which a given species evolved. So whether a species is "native" - by any definition - is not a predictor of how or how well it will respond to storm damage. Snow, including heavy wet snow (here: March snow), falls all over the earth as you get closer to the poles, so species in all of those regions have evolved with snow for millennia.
Ron is correct: the timing of a given weather event & its related factors heavily influence failure. The same tree with its current structure may bear weight of snow & ice well when dormant (in winter), but once those leaf buds start to pop - as the Red Maples & Elms have around here in the past week - that add'l leaf tissue & all the water it holds affect how the tree manages the weight of snow/ice newly distributed throughout a canopy. Also correct: March snow is (usually) a whole different game from the same volume of January snow: it's wetter, & relatedly, the temperature of the world it falls onto is significantly warmer, too. Wind & microclimate are factors here, too, as they affect uptake & budding.
Some of those native Magnolias (& non-native) in the Mt A cemetery & AArboretum did indeed "do just fine" in that they survived, but their resultant poor structures after 4/1/97 made them less resilient to subsequent challenges (weight of water in foliage/rainfall, snow/ice, wind, rapid/unseasonable temp changes, etc). The reason why they look as good & have weathered subsequent storms as they have since '97 is the result of management by humans, not some magical native bred resilience. Also, the "worst" of them were removed in '97 & '98.
I didn't
I didn't live here in 1997.. I was in Atlanta at that time :-)
but ya i know..
The pitfalls
Of consulting just one of the models. Apparently it was an outlier and the new runs are tracking back West.
vital to consult multiple models
After consulting multiple models...
…it's not just the accumulation totals that are rising.
Model convergence!
Wow. They all look the same!
Not a lot
Of the white stuff after all?
UnFunDay
Ugh...Between Elevated FTA and parade day....need to get outside errands done early or face the hoards of revellers who appropriate my building's entrance area as an extension of the "Irish Pub" next door.
Dear Mother Nature:
I like you a lot, and I know you have a tough job, but can you not do this? Please?
She replies....
Happy Spring, suckers!
Pthbbbt!
Says Ma: "I'm not the one who is heating up the planet and screwing with the climate control. Enjoy the rest of your monster el Nino!".
weather.gov/box/winter
Check http://www.weather.gov/box/winter for latest forecasts and probabilities. They keep changing.
Snow Day Calculator...
now predicting 99% chance of Snow Day on Monday for BPS. Anyone taking bets?
http://www.snowdaycalculator.com/calculator.php