Hey, there! Log in / Register
Coronavirus numbers continue to increase; most still stem from Biogen meeting
By adamg on Mon, 03/09/2020 - 5:01pm
We're now at 41 total cases, up from the 28 diagnosed as of yesterday, the state Department of Public Health reports, adding that 32 of those cases are Massachusetts residents among the 175 people who attended a Biogen meeting at the Marriott Long Wharf the last week in February.
Free tagging:
Ad:
Support Universal Hub
Help keep Universal Hub going. If you like what we're up to and want to help out, please consider a (completely non-deductible) contribution.
Comments
I'd like someone to take a
I'd like someone to take a closer, comprehensive look at the Biogen numbers. It's hard because some of the infected are not from/currently in MA and the numbers everywhere seem to be changing by the hour.
175 people total: https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/06/biogen-workers-test-positive-for-cor...
32 Biogen meeting/contacts: https://boston.cbslocal.com/2020/03/09/coronavirus-massachusetts-boston-...
But that 32 could include some that were infected secondary to the meeting? And is that 32 number just cases within MA? Because the first 3 confirmed from that meeting were all out of state when we first heard.
I'm just trying to do some crude math and thinking we are looking at 15-20% of the attendees of this meeting CONFIRMED infected from the same event, so far. Which means large gatherings, including private gatherings, are a bad idea right now.
Swirly's a rock star!
From the NYTimes:
Take a bow.
Excellent!
Thanks, duude!
@SwirlyGrrl - any recommendations of people to follow?
I'm currently following Marc Lipsitch (@mlipsitch) and Mike Mina (michaelmina_lab) as good sources of reliable, unhyped info. Are there any other epidemiologists you particularly recommend?
For those who don't know, Lipsitch did important modeling work on the SARS virus.
Here's one to follow
https://twitter.com/R_H_Ebright
Thank you
I've been wondering about the ratio of attendees to infections.
(Well, that and what were they *doing* at this conference...licking each other?!?)
Seems like this thing is pretty catchy?
Easy to Imagine how it spread
For anyone who ever attended a business, professional, technical, cultural, etc., event -- you know how it spread
Morning session ends -- everyone rushes to the Coffee Break -- including one person who is infected [but not diagnosed] who approaches the line of Coffee Urns, and finger foods and .......COUGHS!!! -- perhaps while holding a cup of coffee and so not coughing into their elbow -- but straight into the air above the Coffee Break Table
The invisible aerosol of fine droplets carrying the SARS-COV-2 virus the causative agent for the COVID-19 disease -- is sprayed all around on the handles of the Coffee Urns, pitchers of cream, tea bags, spoons, finger foods, plates, forks, coffee cups, etc.
The rest of the starving hoards descend on the Coffee Break area handling these viviparous contaminated objects. Since its a food and drink break -- most people will eat and drink and chat and then hit the rest rooms before the next session.
Presto -- dozens of people get exposed to the virus and it seems fairly good at infecting so that over a dozen end up with some level of severity of the disease.
Note: that this far more effective at spreading the virus than having someone in the open air cough or sneeze while you are standing nearby as you watch the runners in the Marathon
If the averages hold
Last I saw, each carrier infects, on average, two other people. The conference wasn't long enough for people who caught it there to give it to other people there, I don't think, so if 8 people who attended were later diagnosed, either 3-4 people who went already had it, or 1 person brought it and just happened to be super touchy-feely.
Remember - diagnosed cases ≠ cases
Due to the severe shortage of test kits, lack of surveillance sampling, people with mild cases, etc. we have to assume that for every diagnosed case there are several undiagnosed cases. So whenever you see or hear in the media that there are N cases in a state or another country (especially ones with tight government control over news media), know that's likely only a fraction of the number. The only place whose numbers I find trustworthy is South Korea, which has done excellent wide-spread testing and has been open with its information.