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First, hopefully only, impact from Lee could come with dangerous surf starting Sunday
By adamg on Thu, 09/07/2023 - 9:30pm
The National Hurricane Center sounds the alert about the increasingly embiggened storm:
The biggest risk from Lee during the next 5 days will be high seas and dangerous surf. Rip currents are likely to begin affecting portions of the northern Caribbean on Friday. These conditions will spread westward through the weekend, reaching most of the U.S. East Coast by Sunday evening.
Looking further into next week, Accuweather says we might have reason for alarm, although it's still too early to start boarding up windows: If the jet stream moves towards the east, it could help protect us from Lee's wrath, but:
If the jet stream is stronger, dips southward and stalls when Lee approaches, the powerful storm could be pulled in close to the U.S. by steering winds during the middle and latter part of next week.
"Right now, the area in the United States that really needs to pay attention includes locations from the upper part of the mid-Atlantic coast to New England," AccuWeather Chief Broadcast Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
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Comments
I’ll be gentle.
Trust me.
Wouldn't rely too much on AccuWeather...
It is way, way too soon for anyone to make predictions on what impacts Lee would have on the East Coast (if any). Sites like AccuWeather will state the worst cast scenarios for clicks. Better off sticking with local National Weather Service social accounts for this. Let's not start whipping up fear, guys.
Facts
You have no evidence that Accuweather or any other weather site is stating "the worst case scenario" for clicks. You just made that up.
The NWS, as of this morning says "...POWERFUL CATEGORY 5 LEE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.."
And as of this morning Accuweather says the same thing
"Hurricane Lee has intensified into a Category 5 storm as it nears the Caribbean islands. It will eventually track toward the United States. At the very least, a significant risk of dangerous rip currents is expected along the East Coast.
Both sources are good sources, as are many others.
"You just made that up."
Really now. So it's perfectly fine for these people to make wild predictions at a time when the National Weather Service literally said "It is way too soon to say what impacts, if any, Lee may have" on the East Coast.
If you want to talk about people who make things up about the weather, look to the former Twitter and the wannabe meterologists who slap a "Wx" on their handles, then issue worst-case or made-up scenarios for follows.
Or if you work for AccuWeather, just say so.
"Wild predictions"
Who? Links? Sources?
Context
The entirety of the message can be seen here. The context of the text you cited is:
[emphasis mine]
Context is everything.
Remember Hurricane Felix?
It never made landfall - it just hung around offshore, making some really nice waves while it spun down from a Cat 5 but also creating millions of dollars in erosion damage and closing beaches/drowning people with rip currents for a substantial period of time.
That's really the best case scenario for Lee.
But we need to remember that many of the most catastrophic hurricanes to slam New England originated or very likely originated (before satellites) on Lee's track in the fall - Gloria, 1938, The Saxby Gale, Edna, Carol, Donna, among others.
Well, well
Looks like we have a new unenrolled user spamming threads for the sole purpose of attacking factual sources.
Adam, can you do an IP check? This behavior is ... interesting. Try googling "Arnie Buckland" for starters.
We should always keep an eye on the weather and be prepared for storms to hit New England, dear. It has always been thus.
No need to panic
The news is freaking out but the latest model (3 hours ago) from the Euro (ECMWF) shows the storm moving further off the coast.
Of course, there could still be dangerous surf, rain, wind, and caution should be taken. But this is not a world ending event that the news is screaming about.
I really wish the news would accuratly report on risk rather than whip up a frenzy for the sake of retaining viewership.
Exactly.
Of course, every major local news outlet is going to highlight the worst-case scenarios to get you to watch. Whipping up fear for ratings and clicks. If they lead with most models showing it veering away from the coast, you would have no reason to watch. Stick with the basics, folks. National Weather Service's social outlets may not be as "charismatic" as WCVB or whomever but at least you're getting straight up facts with little to no hype.
Which alleged facts are being misrepresented by WCVB?
Headline from WCVB online this morning "Lee a powerful category-5 hurricane; possible impact on New England, Massachusetts still uncertain"
So where is the "whipping up fear"?
Not so fast
I live in Florida. You bet your sweet bippy we're paying close attention. Yes, right now the models are all in pretty good agreement and this thing is going to take a fairly dramatic turn north next week, but if it doesn't IT'S A FREAKING CATAGORY 5, only expected to downgrade to a 4.
So no, we're also not boarding up yet down here, but rigorous surveillance is still called for. The weather sites are not doing this "for clicks", but to make sure those who may be in its path are paying attention and are forewarned enough to take appropriate actions if needed. Having lived up in New England until last year I know that no one up there is really prepared for a hurricane since they are so infrequent, so while I'm glad you're blaze about Lee don't poo-poo the effort of the professionals to bring attention to it.
With respect, you are
With respect, you are incorrectly stating I'm not taking Lee seriously. I am saying it is best to follow your local National Weather Service social accounts for the most accurate, no-hype updates. No BS doomsday predictions for the sake of hype, clicks and ratings.
It does not take a genius to figure out a storm like Lee is to be monitored closely. Best believe I am keeping a close eye on how this plays out. That said, I'm not going to let doomsday hype guide me. It's going to be the facts and the facts alone, from the absolute best source available.
So far, most models have Lee making a turn toward the coast, then veering North, away from us. So far, so good. Let's hope this remains the majority.
By the way: it's "blasé."
Which sources, exactly?
Which sources, exactly, are promoting "BS doomsday predictions for the sake of hype, clicks and ratings"
I am not aware of any. And the previous assertions about Accuweather and WCVB are simply false.
Extra points for use of Sweey Bippy
Rowan and Martin are very impressed, as am I. Well done.
For that matter ...
Also try to avoid social media accounts run by wannabe meterologists with no real training, who also shove worst-case scenarios (or worse, completely made-up ones) on people to gain followers and reposts.
Bottom line, New Englanders: please don't start whipping up panic and fear based on doomsday predictions. Let's do better.
Let's do better
And give this mysterious, unsubscribed, newly appearing, and very focused/obsessed/anti-NWS poster providing us with such "sage advice" their due weight.
Just watch the weather, stay aware of conditions, and get your storm supplies in place, folks. If you don't use them this time, there's always a nor'easter or another hurricane or a camping trip or something in the future to eff us up.
The Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency has got you covered: https://www.mass.gov/hurricane-season-preparedness
Uh...
...I literally have said, several times now, best to follow your local NWS social accounts.
If you're going to act like you care, get your facts straight, kid.
By the way...
The fact you lead with me being an "anti NWS poster" when my posts are saying exactly the opposite shows you hardly read one word of what I said. My stance was against wannabe meterologists on social media (you know who they are, kids with no real training with a "Wx" slapped on who may as well cite their sources as "trust me bro") and major news outlets who highlight the worst case scenarios in their lead to get viewer engagement.
I have said, more than once, it's best to stick with the NWS when following Lee and other storms.
But you lead with me being an "anti NWS poster."
Your credibility went down the commode right there.
Man shows up to spam a specific thread
Doesn't register for an account.
Wants us to accept his advice to "New Englanders" who have lived here for decades.
Sure, Jan.
My credibility?
Showing up and spamming this specific thread with your "advice to New Englanders" is far less than credible.
You even replied to Lee in a manner that made it clear that you didn't get the joke - you just wanted to make sure to spam the top comment with your "wisdom". That's either attention seeking or paid, trained behavior.
Having a login here for years and being professionally engaged in assessing and addressing the health impacts of climate and disaster hazards in the commonwealth gives me credibility.
Take your "advice" elsewhere - most people hanging around here were either born in New England or have been around for decades and know what storms are and what to watch for.
Yes. I said your credibility.
When you lead with someone who has been advocating for the NWS as the best go to source, by saying they're an "anti NWS poster," yeah that will lead the person to think "Jfc this person doesn't read."
Look: just because I'm saying people shouldn't go into full blown panic at this moment (since it is way too damn early to know what Lee's impacts could be on the East Coast, if any), doesn't mean I'm not saying keep an eye on its progress. Of course people need to stay vigilant and do exactly as trained experts within the NWS advise (or at best, follow Dave Epstein).
I'm not questioning your credentials or history working within the field and I apologize for not knowing who I was dealing with. Please understand though, that your statement that I was anti NWS, when I am the exact opposite, was offensive to me, since I have family who have long worked within the Service out of Oklahoma, and whose efforts have saved lives.
I'll wrap it all up with this; let's keep an eye on this big bastard and hope majority models prove accurate, keeping this thing away from the immediate coast and minimizing impact.
That said, I will wrap up my replies and wish everyone well. Stay safe and keep an eye on the sky.
AB
Good grief, Swirly
I've been a non-logged in user for well over 10 years and my opinion is that being a long time logged in user, in and of itself, confers almost zero credibility.
Many of them are just axe grinders and also clout hunters spamming the board.
Never understood the supposed status of being an anonymous, albeit long term, user.
Like most readers, I'm well aware of your credentials and respect your opinions on many topics but I've also seen you go way off base more than a few times on less scientific matters.
Not that you're the worst offender.
psst.
new guy pro tip:
Don't argue with SwirlyGrrl. Just don't.
Heh
Excuse me, who are you?
Just wait until “Arnie” hears
Just wait until “Arnie” hears about the French Toast Alert System.
Oh wow
I cannot wait for this.
Chilling thought
I'd rather face a direct hit from a hurricane than a camping trip, but maybe that's just me
I hear ya
I'm in my late 50s and it takes a bit more gumption these days ...
Camping is just one way that I cycle the contents of my emergency supply kit - water, cans of refritoes, camping stove cannisters, etc.
What news report do you think is not accurately reporting?
Who exactly is "whipping up a frenzy"? What news source is calling this a "world ending event"? I'll take the liberty of answering. No news source, and I follow lots of them, is doing that.
Online sources, as well as broadcast tv and cable, as well as government sources, are very specific about the preliminary nature of the information and accuracy of their reports at this point.
I believe that it is important and valuable to be informed as to the relative risks of a huge category 5 hurricane that is projected to impact Eastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod. With rapid intensification being more common due to climate change, it is more important that ever to be forewarned.
I personally have lost power twice in the last 5 years due downed trees during a tropical storm, in both cases downgraded from a hurricane. Even 50-60 mph winds can and do cause damage.
Latest word from the NHC/NWS
Latest word from the NHC/NWS has Lee moving over somewhat colder waters as it makes its turn north, which will help to weaken him some. The colder waters are from the wake of Franklin. If there were more direct impacts aside from surf and rip currents (and this is just a guess incoming here), could be something along the lines of Gloria in 1985.
Or here's hoping the majority predictions win out and the big bastard keeps out to sea.
One TV meterologist I do take seriously is Dave Epstein. So far he's had the most optimistic view on Lee of any other and is fairly confident Lee will veer away out to sea, even citing a potential cold front thst would kick Lee away.
Save
the panic buttons for the flurries
With
With all of the rain we've had this summer plus a full canopy of trees, anything we get if Lee comes close to the coast is going to cause major problems. All it takes is a few gusts of wind and trees will come down. The flooding will be bad as well.
No one is fearmongering. Everyone from the NHS, Weather Channel to the local meterologists are all saying the track is uncertain but the Northeast and Atlantic Canada need to watch starting early next week. If you think fearmongering or wishcasting is going on then you must be getting your weather from the category 6 tik tock weather psychic.
It has been 32 years since the last hurricane hit New England and the complacency along with the unknown for those who weren't around in 1991 is real. I would rather be told now that there is a chance and that my trusted local meterologists are watching it rather than be kept in the dark.