Boston murders, shootings down dramatically

By adamg on Fri, 03/22/2024 - 9:26am

CommonWealth Beacon reports Boston has had just two murders so far this year, compared to at ten for the same period last year - and that the number of gunshot victims is also down, by 64%.

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Boston

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Crime

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Comments

I'll check back after

By anon on Fri, 03/22/2024 - 9:34am.

I'll check back after September.

Currently 9 fewer than last year at this same point and if you eyeball last year April 1st to Sept 30th (conveniently provided right on this website). 15 homicides in that 6 month window during a record low rate for homicide rate.

Last year was pretty low

By Ari O on Fri, 03/22/2024 - 1:23pm.

Per Adam's data, there were some month-long gaps between murders in Boston last year including the first two murder-free calendar months since 2013. These were June and August, bracketing 7 murders in July. Last year started sort of normally, with 17 murders through May 22, but then had those two quiet summer months (and the anything-but-quiet July) followed by a reasonably quiet fall. These missed a few of what the City reported last year (33 vs 36).

Winter months see somewhat fewer murders than summer months, with March historically being the quietest. Adjusting for length of month:

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
3.7 3.6 2.3 3.0 4.2 4.1 5.2 4.3 4.3 4.1 3.4 3.6

As far as "seasons" go, winter (DJF): 10.8, spring (MAM): 9.6, summer (JJA): 13.6, fall (SON): 11.8.

So we'd "expect" to have had about 9 murders by this time, and we've had 2. On March 21 from 2013 to 2023, the total has ranged from 5 (2022) to 14 (2014).

Finally someone reports good news!!

By Ben on Fri, 03/22/2024 - 10:01am.

And all of us were already aware because of your diligence.

Article misses a big explaination

By BostonDog on Fri, 03/22/2024 - 10:01am.

A combination of factors has been credited for the figures, including strengthened police-community partnerships, a strong network of community-based groups working with young people most prone to violence, and outreach by faith leaders.

This summery misses one huge change: Unemployment. It's never been sustained at this lower level since the early 1970s. And wages at the low end have risen slightly faster than inflation. Income inequality is slowly decreasing.

For all the work that's put into policing and outreach, one of the best ways to keep people safe is to make it easy to stay gainfully employed.

Gentrification is the biggest

By anon on Fri, 03/22/2024 - 10:39am.

Gentrification is the biggest factor. The "official" unemployment number often quoted is misleading. After so many weeks as "unemployed" persons get removed and relabeled as "not in the workforce"

Care to share any proof there

By anon on Fri, 03/22/2024 - 12:54pm.

Care to share any proof there about gentrification?

Care to share your data?

By SwirlyGrrl on Fri, 03/22/2024 - 12:59pm.

I'm not seeing such trends in the demographic data I track via the Donahue Institute (https://donahue.umass.edu/) - could you show me what sources you use in case I'm missing something here?

Methodology is not misleading

By tachometer on Fri, 03/22/2024 - 1:42pm.

If the unemployment rate has been calculated the same way for decades (which is has) then it is still at a record low.

Making a claim about people dropping off of unemployment was part of a lie that the GOP used against Obama. As the economic recovery steadily continued across economic data during his administration his opponents would cook up excuses to make the claim that those numbers were all "wrong" somehow lest he get any credit for his stewardship.

With unemployment in particular they said pretty much what you're saying here. The idea, according to them, was that there was still massive unemployment in the US, but that so many people had given up looking for work that the numbers weren't showing it.

Then, on 21 January 2017 the numbers magically became accurate again and could be widely touted for their record low numbers.

Gentrification?

By Waquiot on Fri, 03/22/2024 - 2:40pm.

To prove that, you'd have to see upticks in places where the displaced move to. I don't see it.

See the news stories about Brockton High school

By hydeparkish on Fri, 03/22/2024 - 4:02pm.

Maybe the issues are moving from Mattapan,and Parts of Dorchester to Brockton?

Or could it be mayor Wu,'s polocies are having an impact?

Only warmer weather will tell us !

So everyone moved to Brockton?

By SwirlyGrrl on Fri, 03/22/2024 - 4:26pm.

Again - data please.

Are you sure it isn't Rockland? That was the right wing OMG BLACKS IN THE SUBURBS panic cry a few years back.

If you dig in a bit on the Brockton situation, it has less to do with who is moving in and far more to do with pandemic outfall and a whole bunch of stupid "security" rules based in fear of mass shootings that add up to a clusterfuck - like teachers not being able to lock classrooms because they don't have keys, lots of no show security jobs for connected buddies but no meaningful electronic security, alarm, or surveillance systems, etc.

Labor Participation is still down

By anon on Fri, 03/22/2024 - 10:59am.

From pre-covid. More likely due to people being squeezed out of the city into different areas of the state.

This is not true

By BostonDog on Fri, 03/22/2024 - 4:02pm.

Labor force participation for youth is the highest it's been in 15 years. For Blacks, it's the highest in about 20 years.

Those are the two groups who form the vast majority of murder victims.

Look at FRED data.

More Retirement, Less Immigration

By HenryAlan 2.0 on Mon, 03/25/2024 - 10:23am.

More likely it's large numbers of baby boomers retiring at a faster rate than we add new entrants to the labor force.

I don't see much correlation

By The Snob on Fri, 03/22/2024 - 12:10pm.

Murder rates over the past 20 years in Boston are very cyclical, and don't correlate very cleanly with unemployment. At best, murder peaks seem to be offset by a year or more from unemployment peaks. Not saying there's no connection, but whatever there is, seems pretty non-linear.

One outgrowth of the meetings

By Kinopio on Fri, 03/22/2024 - 10:28am.

One outgrowth of the meetings was formation of a Gun Violence Reduction Management Team, coordinated by Isaac Yablo, Mayor Michelle Wu’s senior advisor for community safety.
Where are the suburban trolls who criticize Mayor Wu with every breath and keystroke now? On vacation at Mar-a-Lardo?

this is true and fun

By berkleealum on Fri, 03/22/2024 - 11:22am.

but they'll just say "you really think one person all of a sudden solved gun violence?"

Troll?

By robo on Fri, 03/22/2024 - 12:28pm.

You’ve got to be up there with uhub troll ranking. Just slightly behind rwgfy.

Do you own a mirror?

By SwirlyGrrl on Fri, 03/22/2024 - 1:01pm.

Do you own a mirror?

Wow!

By robo on Fri, 03/22/2024 - 1:43pm.

A response without a bunch of insults and capitalized words. You’re growing up so fast!

Growing up?

By SwirlyGrrl on Fri, 03/22/2024 - 4:27pm.

Says the one who starts all conversations with "see my cars"?

I'm sorry, but I watch Fox News, so I happen to know

By MC Slim JB on Fri, 03/22/2024 - 10:31am.

that America's cities are burning wastelands roamed by antifa and BLM gangs as well as hordes of migrant criminals. It's like Mad Max: Fury Road, if Immortan Joe were a Democrat.

You can't fool me with reams of data showing a 30-year trend of steadily dropping violent crime!