Election Day Punditry - US Senate edition

Obama showed up Sunday and rallied for Coakley to energize his supporters and signal that the race could still be won. If not, Obama takes one for the team. Obama pragmatic reason for putting himself on the line in this race is the 60th vote in the senate, and important vote due to the persistent and unrelenting Republican obstructionism in the Senate, and for health care although a defeat of Coakley does not necessarily signal a defeat of health care. There's budget reconciliation or stuffing he Senate Bill down the throats of Congress.

Given the timing of Obama’s involvement, it’s pretty clear Democrats in Washington didn’t know how bad Coakley’s slide would be earlier than two week ago. I recall a Nate Silver blog post giving Scott Brown a 15-25% chance of winning about ten or eleven days ago.

Where did Coakley go wrong?

Coakley’s campaign went dark after she won the primary handily but that race too was marked by a rapid convergence around election day. Capuano had gained net 7% one week and 14% the next! He was 7% behind in the polling with one week to go.

Immediately after the primary win is a critical time when a campaign defines it’s opponent. Coakley’s campaign went dark and missed the opportunity. Brown used the room to define himself as a regular guy who would go to Washington and change business as usual by hold spending down and cutting taxes.

Coakley didn’t do herself any favors by eschewing voter rallies and meet-the-candidate events. Martha has not figured out how to project the warmth her staff knows she has.

Do any UHub readers believe that Mike Capuano would be doing any better?

Yes.

Capuano has been in government at many levels, city council, mayor, US Congressmen for seven terms (after attending Dartmouth and BC Law).

Mike would not have conceded the advantage of defining his opponent. Perhaps just as significantly, Mike likes to campaign and meet voters. He’s energetic and he has no reservations about standing out in the cold and shaking hands. He’s a natural "hobnobbing" on the campaign trail. Mike’s liability is a Sommerville dialect and a quick flash point but he’s likable, fair-minded and tough. Perhaps most importantly, he stands up for the people getting a bad deal.

I still think a Coakley win today is possible. If she loses however, Coakley would be a much better campaigner the second time around ... that is if voters give her a second chance.