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Here's hoping omicron really is less severe because daily numbers keep going up
By adamg on Wed, 12/22/2021 - 11:08pm
Covid-19 hospitalization numbers since the start of the pandemic. Source.
Massachusetts today reported 7,817 confirmed new Covid-19 cases, the second highest one-day total yet recorded for the state, behind the 9,031 reported on Jan. 4, during the previous winter surge.
Hospitalization and ICU occupancy are now rising at hockey-stick rates. So far they remain below the numbers seen during last winter's surge, but they have yet to show any signs of slowing down, either.
According to state data, 1,621 patients were in Massachusetts hospitals yesterday. That's a 128% increase over the numbers on Nov. 21, although still well below the previous winter peak of 2,386 on Jan. 6, when vaccines were just being rolled out - and the 3,892 recorded on April 26, 2020, the all time peak in Massachusetts.
Intubation and ICU occupancy, while also rising, also remain below what we saw last winter and in the spring of 2020:
Deaths, too, remain far below the peaks seen last winter and at the start of the pandemic. Massachusetts reported 33 Covid-19 deaths, compared to the winter peak of 94 on Jan. 26, and the 2020 peak of 198 on April 24, 2020.
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Comments
I have a question.
I have a question.
Are you wondering whether the
Are you wondering whether the sudden surge in cases is at least tangentially related to the thousands of free tests that were just distributed, or is it something else?
Cases are going up in the winter for sure, but one-day total scare headlines are noise.
interesting
are rapid test results automatically sent to the state? or i suppose a positive rapid test would make someone head to a test site to confirm?
Automatically?
Ha.
I can't speak for all of the rapid tests, but I've seen the BinaxNOW tests in use, it's basically a paper card that works similarly to the good ole home pregnancy tests. There's no magic transmitter in those kits.
And if I'm recalling (and again reading) the state info (Adam linked to it in his story), the positive case count and test positivity rate in Massachusetts is solely derived from molecular (PCR) test results, not any antigen (rapid) tests. Now, if you get a positive rapid result, you should isolate and can seek confirmation from a PCR test, so a few days later a positive rapid result may then show up as a positive PCR result confirming the rapid result, but it's certainly not an instantaneous "Here's a rapid test kit" = increased PCR positive count in tomorrow's testing data.
You ignoramus
Obviously the 5G chips in the vaccine you've gotten transmit the results to the state control database.
oh, i knew
i posed it as a question instead of trying to dunk on them because i’m not nearly as eloquent or thorough as you are lol.
Rapid at home tests are not
Rapid at home tests are not reported, so no.
You don't think people with
You don't think people with positive tests would call it in, or at least check in with their pcp/hospital? I'm genuinely curious on the process of the take-home test, actually... what is the procedure when you test positive?
Speaking personally
I woke up to a sniffly wife on Sunday so we each did a take-home test (negative) and then scheduled a proper test for the soonest we could get. If we didn't have impending holidays and visits to elderly relatives, we probably would have just let the negative take-home results ride unless either one of us took a turn for the worse. Had it come out positive, we would have gotten the fancy test pronto, regardless of the season.
In theory, but try getting a
In theory, but try getting a PCR test right now.
The graphs in the post are
The graphs in the post are for hospitalizations, not positive tests. Check the sewage levels (https://www.mwra.com/biobot/biobotdata.htm). We're right back where we were last winter.
A (Slightly) More Immediate Question
What about First Night?
Is it about balls?
I really hope you have another ball question.
Is the inaguration ball still
Is the inaguration ball still on?
fun with numbers
So roughly 1/5 of hospitalized patients end up in the ICU (though that might be lower this year), 1/8 of hospitalized patients end up intubated (rough numbers eyeballing charts).
And vaccines. Of the 1600 hospitalized right now 470 are vaccinated, the rest aren’t. So unvaccinated (actually not fully vaccinated) people make up 25% of MA residents (all ages, not just adults) but 70% of hospitalizations.
https://www.nbcboston.com/news/coronavirus/13919-new-breakthrough-cases-...
Doesn't it make more sense
Doesn't it make more sense that people who make bad health decisions throughout life are also unvaccinated?
As ever,
why don't you just come out and say what you're trying to say, rather than hinting obliquely at it? Are you contending that someone who chose not to get the (free, widely and easily available) vaccine for COVID is also likely to have more comorbidities because of their general lifestyle choices, which in turn makes them more vulnerable to the disease? Because that would be a pretty tough thing to suss out from data, and I'm going to guess Occam's Razor is in full effect here: probably those 25% of unvaccinated people make up 70% of hospitalizations for COVID because they're not partially or completely immune to COVID, a disease known for causing people to be hospitalized for lung failure.
Or are you trying to throw out yet another red herring you picked up from a Youtube video of a guy wearing sunglasses in a pickup truck while telling us about the insidious government plot to put 5G chips in our bloodstream while stealing our precious bodily fluids?
Show your work
If you think so, show your work.
So what?
There are plenty of factors to control for, including age, health history, maybe behavior patterns. Ir-re-freaking-gardless, though, after you control for all that, vaccines are pretty goddamn awesome and every person who gets one is less likely to end up sick or dead.