With no toilet paper, bleach or rice left, frustrated shoppers snapped up all the meat

By BostonDog on Fri, 03/13/2020 - 7:36am.

It's pretty damn scary
If 60% of the population gets it and the fatality rate is 1-3%, that's a lot of people.

Let's try to keep the discussion to real-world data and keep things in perspective

We have know way of knowing how many people will "get it" in so far as based on the rest of the world there are probably a whole lot of people who "got it" and never knew being totally asymptomatic or just having the same kinds of symptoms associated with "the Common Cold" or the Seasonal Flu

So while there are currently Total of 127,863 Confirmed cases globally
based on the real-time dashboard
Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)
@ 9:00 AM EDT 03/13/2020
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.htm...
Globally there have been:
4,718 Total Deaths
68,310 Total Recovered

More importantly there is a graph in the lower righthand corner of the dashboard with 3 curves [linear scale]
Total Confirmed Cases in China
Total Confirmed Cases in the rest of the World
Total [Confirmed] Cases who have Recovered

the x-axis is time [since the WHO was notified in early January]
All three curves start out as exponentially increasing with different "starting times" to become noticeable above the baseline
The Confirmed Cases in China has however plateaued with no significant increase in the 80,000 or so cases for the past week

This is highly suggestive that we should expect to see a similar plateau for Globally Confirmed Cases sometime in the next month to 6 weeks

So to put it in perspective the 2009-2010 H1N1 Flu Pandemic is estimated to have infected some 60 to 100 Million people in the US*1 and led to several hundred thousand deaths [either directly or more commonly with other pre-existing causes]*2

So is the COVID-19 disease a real global concern -- Yes
Should we freak-out and become hermits --NO

Just observe the following:
The major deterrents to transmission:

1. Disinfect surfaces with alcohol or bleach [perhaps ammonia] based household or industrial cleaner
2. Wash hands frequently with soap and flowing hot water or wipe hands with pre-moistened towelettes, or use foams, or gels with alcohol, or other appropriate agents [known to be anti-viricidal / anti-bacterial]
3. Cough or Sneeze into a matrix which intercepts the droplets [paper towel, handkerchief, thick Kleenex or your crook of your arm]
4. Stay about 2 arms lengths apart from everybody
5. Don't touch commonly easily contaminated surfaces with your fingers [e.g. door knobs, light switches, elevator buttons] and clean things frequently that you do touch such as phones, small appliances, steering wheel, controls for electrically operated car accessories and of course computer keyboards and mice
6. and try not to touch your face [estimated to happen 23x per hour]

REFS
*1

The 2009 H1N1 Pandemic: Summary Highlights, April 2009-April 2010
Updated: June 16, 2010 [excerpts]

This document summarizes key events of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and CDC’s response activities for historical purposes. This document is a summary; it is not a comprehensive account of all CDC actions and activities nor is it intended to represent response efforts by other agencies and partners.

2009 H1N1 was first detected in the United States in April 2009. This virus was a unique combination of influenza virus genes never previously identified in either animals or people. The virus genes were a combination of genes most closely related to North American swine-lineage H1N1 and Eurasian lineage swine-origin H1N1 influenza viruses. Because of this, initial reports referred to the virus as a swine origin influenza virus. However, investigations of initial human cases did not identify exposures to pigs and quickly it became apparent that this new virus was circulating among humans and not among U.S. pig herds.

Infection with this new influenza A virus (then referred to as ‘swine origin influenza A virus’) was first detected in a 10-year-old patient in California on April 15, 2009, who was tested for influenza as part of a clinical study....Two days later, CDC laboratory testing confirmed a second infection with this virus in another patient, an 8-year-old living in California about 130 miles away from the first patient who was tested as part of an influenza surveillance project. There was no known connection between the two patients... Testing showed that these two viruses were resistant to the two antiviral drugs amantadine and rimantadine, but susceptible to the antiviral drugs oseltamivir and zanamivir. CDC began an immediate investigation into the situation in coordination with state and local animal and human health officials in California.

The cases of 2009 H1N1 flu in California occurred in the context of sporadic reports of human infection with North American-lineage swine influenza viruses in the United States, most often associated with close contact with infected pigs. (During December 2005 – January 2009, 12 cases of human infection with swine influenza were reported; five of these 12 cases occurred in patients who had direct exposure to pigs, six patients reported being near pigs, and the source of infection in one case was unknown). Human-to-human spread swine influenza viruses had been rarely documented and had not been known to result in widespread community outbreaks among people. In mid-April of 2009, however, the detection of two patients infected with swine origin flu viruses 130 miles apart, raised concern that a novel swine-origin influenza virus had made its way into the human population and was spreading among people.

CDC remained in close contact with the international health community as the outbreak unfolded and on April 18, 2009, under the International Health Regulations (IHR) the United States International Health Regulations Program reported the 2009 H1N1 influenza cases to the World Health Organization (WHO). The cases also were reported to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), Canada and Mexico, as part of the Security and Prosperity Partnership of North America.

By April 21, 2009, CDC had begun working to develop a virus that could be used to make vaccine to protect against this new virus (called a candidate vaccine virus)....A virus isolated at CDC, (called A/California/07/2009) was eventually chosen to be the vaccine virus used to make vaccine. CDC sent the vaccine virus to vaccine manufacturing companies so that they could begin vaccine production....

On April 23, 2009, samples submitted by Texas revealed two additional cases of human infections with 2009 H1N1, transforming the investigation into a multistate outbreak and response. At the same time, CDC was testing 14 samples from Mexico, some of which had been collected from patients who were ill before the first 2 U.S. (California) patients. Results from seven of the samples were positive for 2009 H1N1 and similar findings were reported for specimens submitted by Mexico to Canada. It had now become clear that cases were occurring in multiple countries and human to human spread of the virus appeared to be ongoing...

On April 24, 2009, CDC uploaded complete gene sequences of the 2009 H1N1 virus to a publicly-accessible international influenza database...

On April 29, 2009 WHO raised the influenza pandemic alert from phase 4 to phase 5, signaling that a pandemic was imminent, and requested that all countries immediately activate their pandemic preparedness plans and be on high alert for unusual outbreaks of influenza-like illness and severe pneumonia....

On May 1, 2009, CDC test kits began shipping to domestic and international public health laboratories. (Each test kit contained reagents to test 1,000 clinical specimens). From May 1 through September 1, 2009, more than 1,000 kits were shipped to 120 domestic and 250 international laboratories in 140 countries. Once labs had the test kits and verified that their testing was running properly, they were able to identify new cases more quickly than before and no longer needed to send samples to CDC for lab confirmation. ...between April 23 and May 31, 2009, CDC influenza laboratory analyzed about 5,000 influenza virus samples, five times the number that were processed in a similar timeframe in 2008, ...By May 18, 2009, 40 states had been validated to conduct their own 2009 H1N1 testing, ...CDC alerted the public that the expansion in testing capacity would likely result in a jump in the number of 2009 H1N1 cases, but that this would actually present a more accurate picture of the true scope of 2009 H1N1 influenza in the United States.

On May 8, 2009, CDC issued an MMWR updating the situations in Mexico, the United States, and worldwide,...By this point in the outbreak, about half of all influenza viruses being detected through laboratory surveillance were 2009 H1N1 viruses, with the other half being regular seasonal influenza viruses, including seasonal influenza A H1N1, influenza A H3N2 and type B viruses. Surveillance reports indicated that the largest number of 2009 H1N1 influenza confirmed and probable cases (about 57% of cases) were occurring among people between 5 years and 24 years of age, and 41% of the hospitalizations were occurring among older children and young adults. The highest rates of hospitalization were among children younger than 5 years of age; the next highest hospitalization rate was in people 5 years to 24 years of age......

People with other previously recognized medical conditions that placed them at high risk of complications from seasonal influenza also appeared to be at increased risk of complications from 2009 H1N1 influenza. In this report, seventy-one percent (71%) of hospitalized patients had one or more underlying chronic medical conditions. Reported deaths had occurred in people ranging in age from 22 months old to 57 years old. Also, only 13% of hospitalizations had occurred in people 50 years and older, and there were few cases and no deaths in people older than 65 years, which was unusual when compared with seasonal flu.....

On June 11, 2009, WHO signaled that a global pandemic of 2009 H1N1 influenza was underway... At the time, more than 70 countries had reported cases of 2009 H1N1 infection, and community level outbreaks of 2009 H1N1 were ongoing in multiple parts of the world. The WHO decision to raise the pandemic alert level to Phase 6 was a reflection of spread of the virus in other parts of the world ... To date, most people in the United States who had become ill with 2009 H1N1 influenza had not become seriously ill and had recovered without hospitalization....

After the WHO declaration of a pandemic on June 11, the 2009 H1N1 virus continued to spread and the number of countries reporting cases of 2009 H1N1 nearly doubled from mid-June 2009 to early July 2009. Significant levels of 2009 H1N1 illness continued, with localized and in some cases intense outbreaks occurring. By June 19, 2009, all 50 states in the United States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands had reported cases of 2009 H1N1 infection. The United States continued to report the largest number of 2009 H1N1 cases of any country worldwide, although most people who became ill recovered without requiring medical treatment....At the June 25, 2009 Advisory...CDC estimated that at least 1 million cases of 2009 H1N1 influenza had occurred in the United States....

The Southern Hemisphere’s influenza season began in May 2009 and countries there reported that 2009 H1N1 virus was spreading and causing illness along with regular seasonal influenza viruses. After mid-July, disease activity in most countries decreased, and by November, temperate regions of the Southern Hemisphere were reporting very little 2009 H1N1 disease activity....These findings provided the U.S. with valuable clues related to what the 2009-2010 influenza season in the United States might be like. Importantly, the lack of significant changes in the virus indicated that the 2009 H1N1 vaccine being manufactured would closely match the currently circulating 2009 H1N1 viruses and likely provide people with good protection against 2009 H1N1 influenza.....

2009 H1N1 influenza summer activity peaked in the United States during May and June and declined during July and early August. However, levels of influenza activity would remain above normal throughout the summer months with localized outbreaks. During the last two weeks of August, 2009 H1N1 influenza activity again began to increase United States....

The emergence and spread of the 2009 H1N1 virus resulted in extraordinary influenza-like illness activity in the United States throughout the summer and fall months of 2009. During this period, influenza activity reached its highest level in the reporting week ending October 24, 2009, with 49 of 50 states reporting geographically widespread disease.....

On September 3, 2009, CDC published in the MMWR a study that had analyzed data related to 2009 H1N1 influenza pediatric deaths reported to CDC from April to August, 2009. Data showed that as of August 8, 2009, 477 deaths with laboratory confirmed 2009 H1N1 flu in the United States had been reported to CDC, including 36 children younger than 18 years of age. Sixty-seven percent (67%) of children who died with 2009 H1N1 influenza had at least one high-risk medical condition......

The year 2010 began with the National Influenza Vaccination Week (NIVW). NIVW is a national observance that was established to highlight the importance of continuing influenza vaccination after the holiday season into January and beyond. The President of the United States proclaimed the week of January 10-16, 2010, National Influenza Vaccination Week,...

The United States experienced its second wave of 2009 H1N1 activity in the fall with activity peaking during the second week in October. After that, activity declined quickly to below baseline levels in January, but persisted for several more months at lower levels. However, by May, influenza activity levels in the United States were low across key flu indicators.....

https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/cdcresponse.htm

*2

The last pandemic was a ‘quiet killer.’ Ten years after swine flu, no one can predict the next one
By HELEN BRANSWELL @HelenBranswellJUNE 11, 2019

Since it started circulating in the spring of 2009, H1N1 has infected about 100 million Americans, killing about 75,000 and sending 936,000 to the hospital, the CDC estimates.

https://www.statnews.com/2019/06/11/h1n1-swine-flu...