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It's Here
By Barbara Diamond on Thu, 03/13/2008 - 2:10pm
Folks, it is time to stop talking about recession and deal with reality. We are headed into a full-blown depression. All the historical precedents have been met.
Retail Sales Plunge by 0.6 Percent
Unemployment is skyrocketing. We don't know how bad the problem is because the US government's figures cannot be trusted.
Right now 20% of American homes are in arrears on their mortgage payments. 20% are in trouble with the IRS. Those are depression era levels.
The federal reserve has lost control of inflation. It HAS to keep pouring out new "funny" money or let the banks and mortgage institutions collapse.
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Comments
I hate everything you post
You're so off-topic its ridiculous. Please plug your lousy blog someplace else.
A Better Way to Hate
Start your own blog that only you can post to. That would require you to be a little more specific and less anonymous, though.
You can also e-mail the blogmeister off line with your discontent, too.
Otherwise, why do YOU think that ANYBODY wants to read your repetitive "I HATE" postings, either?
But seriously, how is this Boston-related?
Give me some Boston-area-specific economic figures please?
She's already got one
Click on her name, then on "My URL".
Original link, less hoops
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080313/economy.html
Horsehockey
I don't know who writes that blog but they certainly have no understanding of economics. A recession is necessitated by a decline in GDP for at least two consecutive quarters. 2007 Q4 GDP was measured at +0.6 and 2008 Q1 numbers haven't even come out yet.
We are not in a recession, much less a depression.
We could certainly go into a recession, as economic indicators are not looking good at all (energy prices, RE values, etc.) but we are at least 5 months away from making that determination.
Also, the claim that "unemployment is skyrocketing" is bullshit. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for February is 4.8%. That is an outstanding number, and well below the average unemployment rate we "enjoyed" during the Clinton boom.
In sum, the author is a full-blown moron.
Unemployment
Also, the claim that "unemployment is skyrocketing" is bullshit. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for February is 4.8%. That is an outstanding number, and well below the average unemployment rate we "enjoyed" during the Clinton boom.
The "unemployment" percentage is disingenuous of any actual problems in the job market. Anyone who gave up on finding a job because it's been too bleak in the hunt isn't counted. That percentage isn't truly indicative of much because there are so many confounding variables that go into what the goverment counts as "unemployed" these days.
Don't Blame Me
I voted for Kodos!
Shame about his daughter, though
Oh, wait, you mean the other Kodos, not this one.
Oh Yeah
One more thing ...
The author states that 20% of mortgages are in arrears.
The latest numbers I have seen from the Mortgage Bankers Association puts the percentage of U.S. mortgages in arrears at 6%.
To help the author understand this, I will submit the following for their review:
The number "6" is much lower than "20."
What "arrears" are they located in?
Do they have a map of the arrears of where 20% of mortgages are? I'm assuming they must be in the Boston Arrear ...
Almost right...
Actually for the 4th quarter of 2007 the MBA published the total percentage of borrowers who were not current on their mortgage as 7.86%.
5.9% is just the delinquent number.
The newspaper definition of a recession is two quarters of GDP decline, however "The Business Cycle Dating Committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) provides a better way to find out if there is a recession is taking place. This committee determines the amount of business activity in the economy by looking at things like employment, industrial production, real income and wholesale-retail sales. They define a recession as the time when business activity has reached its peak and starts to fall until the time when business activity bottoms out. When the business activity starts to rise again it is called an expansionary period. By this definition, the average recession lasts about a year."
As for the unemployment rate, you are slightly off in your Clinton Years statement. Overall, the unemployment average of 5.2 is the same for both the Clinton and Bush years. However Clinton left the White House with a 3.9% unemployment rate. Clinton inherited a rate somewhere in the mid 7% area and brought it steadily down through his 8 years while Bush has had his bounce up and down with peaks and valleys.
So your points are valid but not necessarily spot on.
This has what to do with Boston?
"Run in circles, scream and shout" isn't a Boston-specific topic.