Who would've thought that e-mail issues would rev up the home stretch to the preliminary election!?
Any thoughts/predictions/prognostications on what will happen on Tuesday?
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Comments
Menino 1st, Yoon 2nd, Flaherty 3rd, McCrae 4th
By anon
Fri, 09/18/2009 - 10:57am
I think that the Yoon campaign has dominated the last few weeks and that the email scandal only re-enforces their message of changing not just the mayor - but the system.
Prediction
By anon
Fri, 09/18/2009 - 2:51pm
Menino - 44%
Flaherty - 32%
Yoon - 21%
McCrea - 9%
Predicition..
By anon
Fri, 09/18/2009 - 11:23am
- Menino coasts, with at least 60%
- Yoon takes out Flaherty
- Connolly tops the ticket
- Connolly and Yoon prepare for their face-off in 4 years
- Murphy doesn't make top 4
- Gonzales makes top 5
- Doug Bennett doesn't make the top 8, allowing him to start his next campaign (Does Suffolk county have an elected dog catcher?)
- Pressley doesn't do as well as she planned (I like her though)
Silence, maybe?
By Lecil
Fri, 09/18/2009 - 12:10pm
I dunno about Tuesday, but I'm dearly hoping that the phone will stop rining effective Wednesday. The robodialers have my number apparently!
I agree
By david_yamada
Fri, 09/18/2009 - 12:46pm
I'm glad that one of my phones has caller ID. Too bad there's not a "no call" list for regular voters.
FWIW: Even with e-mailGate, the Mayor should come out on top, easily. As for second place, I'll hazard a guess that Yoon will surprise. I don't think he's run the strongest campaign, but he connects well with people one-to-one and his heart is in the right place. He does esp. well with younger voters, so if they turn out....always a big if.
My impressions of Flaherty are more positive than before. He's run a good campaign and deserves consideration.
It will be interesting to follow the whole mess of at-large Council candidates. That has become a bit of a crapshoot.
And because I appreciate when people couch their political comments with reasonable disclosure about favored candidates: I'll be voting for Yoon. I also gave a small contribution to Ayanna Pressley and will include her among my Council votes.
City Council
By adamg
Fri, 09/18/2009 - 2:30pm
Let's see how well I do ...
Murphy, Connolly, Kenneally, Pressley, Jackson, Arroyo, Gonzalez.
That's only seven, it'll be interesting to see if knocking on 80,000 doors and robo-calling every single household in the city at least 38 times in the week before the election will do anything for Bennett.
I'll stick my neck out
By FrancescaFordiani
Fri, 09/18/2009 - 2:51pm
I'll stick my neck out and put Ezedi as the 8th on your list, Adam. To be honest, I have no idea how his campaign is doing, but he does have name recognition, he's energetic, charismatic, positive and, let's face it, entertaining, so I think he'll stay in.
I'll pass on predicting the Mayoral finish -- I am pulling for Yoon, though.
Anyone have a prediction on the Globe endorsement? I predict that they will endorse Not Menino after the prelim.
Blogging vs. Journalism
By fedupwithfinneran
Sat, 09/19/2009 - 1:23pm
The crucial difference between blogging and journalism:
A blogger, overstating things only slightly, wonders if "robo-calling every single household in the city at least 38 times in the week before the election will do anything for Bennett."
A journalist, on the other hand, wonders where Doug Bennett is getting the money to pay for all those calls, and why the payments don't appear anywhere on his campaign finance disclosures.
And a commenter would just make baseless accusations
By adamg
Sat, 09/19/2009 - 8:56pm
If you look at Bennett's campaign financial reports, you see a bunch of payments to Jerry Dorchuck (although the most recent report identifies him as "Jerry Dorhush" - typing does not seem to be Doug's strong point) - $3,800 since July 1.
The expenditures are all listed as being for "consulting." But if you Google "Jerry Dorchuck," you eventually get to Political Marketing International, which promises "In 1 hour, we can place 175,000 calls, poll for an opinion, survey the recipients, and compile the results!"
Happy now?
My 100%, sure bet, take-it-to-the-bank Election Day forecast
By david_yamada
Sun, 09/20/2009 - 3:50pm
Doug Bennett will not get my vote on Tuesday, or ever.
How many freaking times does his campaign have to call?
"i suggest you do too"
By anon
Sun, 09/20/2009 - 3:54pm
he had three different people call my house IN ONE DAY and tell me they were going to vote for him. one guy even said "i suggest you do too" Doug Bennett is an amateur who has poor organization and no respect for his potential constituents.
Robocalls
By david_yamada
Fri, 09/18/2009 - 2:47pm
I've never had so many robocalls for an election!
They must work if people are using them so much, but I'm ignoring and then deleting. I can't recall ever having a robocall either persuade me or remind me in any way to vote for someone. If anything it's annoying.
Very interesting race even for outsiders
By merlinmurph
Fri, 09/18/2009 - 2:51pm
Even as a MetroWester, I've been watching this race closely. Lots of, uh, interesting personalities.
Side story: Just before Labor Day, my wife and I were vacationing on the Cabot Trail, Cape Breton I. in Nova Scotia. (I know what you're saying now - "Where is he going with this???" Hang on.)
So, we're sitting in a bar in Cheticamp, grabbing a meal. There's somebody playing folk music, and there's a few TVs turned on with the sound off. One has hockey - of course. Another huge giant screen is showing the debate for the Boston mayoral race - I kid you not! I asked the bartender about it, and he just shrugged his shoulders and laughed.
Menino 1st, Flaherty 2nd, Yoon 3rd, McCrea 4th
By anon
Fri, 09/18/2009 - 2:54pm
Menino gets about 42%.
Flaherty within striking distance at 32%.
Yoon behind at 20%
McCrea last at 6%
Predictions
By JohnAKeith
Fri, 09/18/2009 - 3:04pm
I think the Mayor will end up with 60%. Expect much to be made of this, on Wednesday morning (mostly, by the Mayor's PR team). While I don't think greater-than 50% for Menino means he is invincible in November, getting less-than 50% means the bell's tolling for him.
I think Sammy Yoon will come in second! You'd think Mike Flaherty would but Sam seems to have a lot of momentum. It's hard to tell who will get out the vote. Yoon received 2,000 fewer votes than Flaherty in the 2007 city council at large race (10% less), but that probably means nothing in this mayoral election. (Yoon received 8,000 fewer votes in the 2005 race (approx. 9%), but that was Yoon's first run.)
I think, come November, more Boston voters would go for Flaherty in a match up against Menino, versus Yoon v. Menino, but maybe I don't know anything?
My prediction?
Menino 56%
Yoon 19%
Flaherty 16%
McCrea 9%
City Council race?
Steve Murphy #1 (veteran city councilor, need someone who knows where they keep the keys)
Ayanna Pressley #2 (shortest term; runs for US Congress, in February)
John Connolly #3 (all-around good guy, and a new dad!)
Andy Kenneally #4 (I'm holding signs for him, Tuesday)
Tito Jackson #5 (Tito, quit foolin'.)
Felix Arroyo Jr #6 (he was great as city councilor, last time ... hey, wait a min!)
Tony Gonzalez #7 (wins 'cuz he has the best signature)
In #8 it will be a cat-fight (or, seeing as they're all men, a you-know-what fight).
I'm guessing it will be Ego Ezedi, based on campaign organization and name recognition. He certainly wasn't loved the other night at the South End candidates' forum for his previously flip-floping on the BU Biolab, but few outside the South End may care.
I'm crossing my fingers for Sean "Burn the Fed" Ryan. His comment to me, earlier this week? "If I win the preliminary, I will win in November." I'm willing to see if that's possible!
Mr Ben Dougett? Will he be out taking down all those signs he stuck up around town, Wednesday morning? If not, feel free to bring them to him in person - he lives at Harbor Towers (although he'll probably be on the 8:00 AM Nantucket ferry, is my bet).
I don't think Robert Fortes or Scotland Willis have the votes. Scotland comes across as a very nice man. He seems smart. He's a dad, so he knows what it's like to be a parent in Boston. I'd like to see him go to the finals.
Bill Trabucco is nice (hi, Bill!). Don't see it. No for Jean-Claude Sanon (gets points for his passion, though) or Hiep Quoc Nguyen, but he's only 26 - he can run in two years. Or, just go for US Senate, everyone else is.
You people who still have landlines - it's time to cut the cord!
Ezedi
By adamg
Fri, 09/18/2009 - 3:31pm
Has he been doing much outside Roxbury? I don't see any of his signs around Roslindale/West Roxbury/Hyde Park (as opposed to Gonzalez, who has signs in a primo location on Hyde Park Avenue).
As for Ryan and Bennett, even if they do make the finals, I really doubt Boston is going to elect a couple of teabaggers (both of them were at the July 4th tea-party thing at Christopher Columbus Park).
I take it back
By adamg
Fri, 09/18/2009 - 4:25pm
Just got a robocall: "Hello, my friend, this is Ego Ezedi ..."
"Ego Ezedi!" I called out.
"I think we already got one from him," wife responded from the living room.
Flip Connolly and Murphy on John's prediction?
By david_yamada
Fri, 09/18/2009 - 3:48pm
I think Connolly has made a strong positive impression on a lot of people. Murphy has done okay but not great in recent races, yes?
On the whole, this is a pretty good group of candidates.
My prediction
By anon
Fri, 09/18/2009 - 3:02pm
The robocalls will not stop.
Handwriting is on the wall, just as emails are off the server
By anon
Sat, 09/19/2009 - 12:44am
People are getting tired of a mayor who is getting tired. Tired-sounding and tired ideas. He may make it one more time but if so, it will be the last hurrah, no question. After all, how many years of Menino Domination can people stomach? If he makes it this time, fed-up Bostonians will outvote the Menino Machine Minions next election. But I am sure he would not run again next time anyway.