Half of Boston voters who showed up at the polls said yesterday that "good" is good enough. Can Michael Flaherty overcome that?
Possibly the most important thing for Flaherty is something he can't control: Will Donovan Slack at the Globe keep digging into City Hall? Can she find more than the e-mail flap? What about 16 years' worth of BRA development deals? Ooh, what about the Roxbury mosque - a fun little project that involves both the BRA and missing e-mail?
Because while Flaherty was chanting "We can't wait!" last night, 51% of the people who voted yesterday were saying "Yes we can wait!"
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Comments
Two things could make a big difference
By Stevil
Wed, 09/23/2009 - 8:50am
1) Delete-delete gate - we'll see - but a Globe interviewee states they felt it cost the mayor 5 points - will this become a bigger issue or blow over (or be delayed until after the election?)
2) It's possible the numbers for tax rates will come out before the election - and if they are not pretty - eg - 15-20% increase - you could see some people start to question this whole "the city is well managed" claim
Otherwise most of the people who voted Menino will vote Menino and those who voted non-Menino will hold their noses and vote non-Menino and it will all depend on those extra marginal voters who turn out in the general.
I don't see Flaherty having
By DrE
Wed, 09/23/2009 - 9:02am
I don't see Flaherty having even a remote prayer. He's running a loser's campaign, in which he praises his opponent but claims to be slightly better (presumably because he wants to still have a political career when he's done). You just don't win that way.
Plus, not all Yoon voters will be going his way, while Menino can reasonably expect to keep all his voters. I know of at least a few Yoon voters in the primary who will be going with Menino in the election, because Flaherty doesn't represent any real promise of an improvement. He's done little to show that he's not just Menino Lite, and why vote for the knock-off when you can have the original, who at least is a known quantity?
Pretty much this. He also
By anon
Wed, 09/23/2009 - 9:49am
Pretty much this.
He also comes off as a "Younger Mumbles". Why go younger and start fresh when you already have one with political clout? IMO Flaherty hasn't offered much of a change, and I feel there'd be no real difference between the two besides Flaherty having a honeymoon period, and some fumbling as he learned the ropes at city hall.
Its a great question....
By GLobby
Wed, 09/23/2009 - 9:14am
.....and will be interesting to see how it shakes out. I voted for Yoon based off the fact he offered a stark difference from Menino's view of the future of Boston. As of now I do not see that in Flaherty. He has offered little in the way of what he will be as mayor other then "I wont be him". Having a tough time getting fired up for that. And while I agree that the email story may have legs (as of now is a dud) and could alter the race, I hate to think that Flaherty is simply going to rely on a reporter (apologies to Ms Slack) to get him into office.
Guy who wants to be your uncle vs. your uncle
By adamg
Wed, 09/23/2009 - 9:28am
Mike Ball writes Flaherty has to do more than come up with inane slogans:
Tweedledum vs. Tweedledee
By adamg
Wed, 09/23/2009 - 9:33am
The Outraged Liberal: predicts a fifth term
Yesterday's Election: plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose
By issacg
Wed, 09/23/2009 - 9:39am
Regardless of whether Flaherty has a chance, I think the real story is that you have to career politicians running, who look and sound like all Boston politicians since, well, a long time ago.
I think the real takeaway from yesterday is that all of this "New Boston" stuff that we are constantly fed is bunk, at least as it applies to politics. My view is that the only thing that will change the Boston political dynamic is the Manhattanization of downtown (i.e., much more housing for very well-to-do people). I am not saying that this is going to happen, or that it would be a good thing, but it is the only thing that I can think of that will shift the power away from those particular wards in those particular neighborhoods in which it has resided for so long.
Actually, I can think of one other thing, but I KNOW this will never happen - that the kids in A-B actually register here and vote.
For the record, I am not able to vote in the election as I left for the "Gap" years ago. That said, the old saying, "as Boston goes, so goes New England" is still true, so I take an interest in the well-being of the City.
"Poor people suck, my
By anon
Wed, 09/23/2009 - 9:53am
"Poor people suck, my interests are much different then theirs"
Really?
What's that sonny? Eh?
By SwirlyGrrl
Wed, 09/23/2009 - 9:56am
I think it means that Boston is a giant assisted living facility that is rapidly turning into a giant rest home. From there? A giant graveyard.
Like the much of the rest of urban Massachusetts, Boston's population is aging. Young people cant afford to live here, and don't want to live here beyond their college years anymore. Things won't change until Boston politics stop being dominated by the massive elder vote.
No Easy Solution...
By Matt L
Wed, 09/23/2009 - 10:01am
I mean, Sarah Palin's from a younger generation and yet she's very vocal about her opposition to Death Panels.
Swirly has a good point
By Stevil
Wed, 09/23/2009 - 10:06am
Paul Grogan of the Boston Foundation spoke at the annual meeting for the Neighborhood Assn of the Back Bay and said that one of the biggest challenges for our state is the aging of our population - add a low birthrate, marginal immigration rate and high housing prices and we will struggle to keep our population stable. Not much we can do about the weather - but we really need to attract/keep a younger population.
Don't be so sure. I can
By HenryAlan
Wed, 09/23/2009 - 11:01am
Don't be so sure. I can only offer anecdotal evidence, but I see a lot of young families in my neighborhood, mostly moving into homes vacated by elderly residents. So maybe people in their 20s aren't all sticking around after college, but many who do, stick around in their 30s and become home owners.
Census Data
By SwirlyGrrl
Wed, 09/23/2009 - 11:13am
Sure, neighborhoods like yours and mine turn over to young families ... but the "young family" neighborhoods now have aging empty nesters. What happens in small areas doesn't make a dent in the larger demographic realities. Nationally, the baby boom is entering its latter years. Regionally, young people are not replacing older people in the Northeast (why we keep losing representatives) and that has been the case for some time. I would be amazed if Census 2010 shows any reversal, or even any slowing of the trend toward young people leaving the area and old people staying.
Questions, questions
By Spatch
Wed, 09/23/2009 - 10:30am
Will Donovan Slack at the Globe keep digging into City Hall? Can she find more than the e-mail flap? What about 16 years' worth of BRA development deals?
...and what about Naomi?
"We can't wait!" Waiting for what?
By david_yamada
Wed, 09/23/2009 - 10:43am
Flaherty doesn't have as much control over the tenor of the 6 week final stretch as a challenger would like to have. Unless there are more smoking guns coming out of the bowels of City Hall, Menino is sitting pretty strong despite a tepid vote in the preliminary round.
Those who are saying "what's the diff?" are right. Flaherty is competent to be mayor, but he needs to project why he's a viable alternative to the status quo.
I wish that either result could make me feel stoked about the future of the city, but every time I walk past the Filene's hole...
Over 50% is huge
By Alan
Wed, 09/23/2009 - 10:51am
It semed like everyone (i.e. David Bernstein and Scott Lehigh on AM 1510) yesterday was playing the expectations game for Menino saying he had to hit 50% to feel good. I wasn't sure if he could do it with 3 other campaigns but he did. In fact, Menino got as many votes yesterday as there were cast in total in 2005. That is definitely an accomplishment.
Yoon First, Menino Second
By JCS
Wed, 09/23/2009 - 11:37am
I voted for Yoon but will vote for Menino because I know he will be gone in four years and then we'll have an election less influenced by the legion of city hall employees loyal to the mayor. We may have to destroy the city in order to save it, but I'm willing to take that chance. There are three reasons why the old boy network has a stranglehold: 1. City employees 2. Union members 3. South Boston and West Roxbury. Anyone trying to win a primary without one of those pillars of support faces an almost impossible task.
Yoon First, FLAHERTY Second (at least for me) here's why:
By DPat
Wed, 09/23/2009 - 1:07pm
Menino will be gone in TWO or THREE years, but his machine will still be there. He already has the votes in the City Council to have his relative Rob Consalvo (nephew or cousin??) elected as President of the City Council- at which point the Mayor will resign. Thus, making Conslavo interim mayor with an entrenched machine...we all know what happens then...
My thought is that if Flaherty is elected (a longshot, I know) he will only have had four years to become "entrenched". At least one of those years will be spent re-building burnt bridges in City Hall. If its said that he is no different than Menino, then why not give hime a shot? Its does two things: gets rid of the Menino machine, and give a new young, "educated" person a chance to prove that he is "Better" than what we have. If he isn't, we vote his ass out. Which will be much easier because he will not be nearly as powerful as Consalvo(ie menino) will be in 4 years...
Just how I look at it...
Consalvo
By adamg
Wed, 09/23/2009 - 1:18pm
Godson.
I wouldn't mind seeing
By HenryAlan
Wed, 09/23/2009 - 2:29pm
I wouldn't mind seeing Consalvo get the job.
Of course he does
By FrancescaFordiani
Wed, 09/23/2009 - 2:38pm
Of course Flaherty has a chance -- I'm never one to declare an election over before it's even begun, and Menino's 50% gives him a clear opening. But folks on either side of the answer make good points, so I don't think the theoretical path to victory is at all clear. I've just gotten to my desk today and see that the city has unofficial results up by ward and precinct, so I haven't really had a chance to look at them yet. But a breakdown of the numbers by neighborhood is where the answer lies. The other thing we don't know is if Flaherty has maxed out his donor base or how much cash he has on hand to keep him going. I'm assuming that Menino has plenty of money, so that's not an issue for him, but I don't actually know it to be the case. Right now, I'm inclined to think that he and Menino will more or less split the Yoon and McCrea vote, and that "no one" won't be a significant factor.
P.S.
By FrancescaFordiani
Wed, 09/23/2009 - 2:40pm
P.S. Folks who are saying that you know Menino will be gone in two, three or four years: what do you know that I don't know? Last time around the speculation was that Menino would retire during his fourth term and that didn't happen, so what's different now?
His age and his even firmer
By DPat
Wed, 09/23/2009 - 4:13pm
His age and his even firmer grip on the City Council makes its more likely this time....
you may also see activists speak out about Flaherty
By Mike B
Wed, 09/23/2009 - 3:39pm
Particularly tenant activists who got the cold shoulder from him on the various Menino and Yoon rent regulation proposals, also some of the councilors who complained about his use of "Rule 19" to curb debates on issues of broader import. Some didn't get involved with either Menino or Yoon but may feel free to endorse Menino and speak up now.