French Toast Alert Level: Elevated. Explanation.
OK, the yellow toast flag has just gone up. Obviously, the French Toast Alert System was designed for winter storms, rather than tropical summer events, but then again, forecasters keep telling us part of their uncertainty with Earl is their models are all based on tropical conditions, not weather in the cool (hah!) North Atlantic, so we're even.
In any case, although our local TV forecasters are staying calm and measured (Matt Noyes at NECN even acknowledges he'd love to bust out, but as a Responsible Weatherman, just can't), but some amateur forecasters are kind of going nuts and we've got FEMA warning us to brush up on our evacuation routes now.
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Comments
Thinking ahead
By Lecil
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 11:34am
See, I have to go to the grocery store; outta kitty litter and all that. Now, I could go today, and deal with move-in shoppers, all of whom have apparently never been to a supermarket. Or I could go tomorrow, and deal with the oh-my-god-there-is-a-storm-coming shoppers. For blizzards they go for white food; what do they go for come a hurricane, one wonders? On the off-hand chance they go for kitty litter, I guess I venture into Shaw's today.
Wish me luck.
Maybe thinking ahead too hard?
By anon
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 12:11pm
You can probably duck in, grab the kitty litter and duck out without too much difficulty. To be truly disasterous, leave it to the night before the storm, 5 minutes before closing!
I'd love to see Al Kaprielian
By riggssm
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 11:37am
I'd love to see Al Kaprielian report on the pending storm ...
Al!
By adamg
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 11:55am
Al Kaprielian online!
Does he always sound that drunk?
By anon
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 12:03pm
Is that why he has fans?
Should I feel bad for Al?
By Pete Nice
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 12:07pm
It looks he is doing that report from his mothers basement or something. Kind of reminds me of that guy from Office Space who gets his stapler taken away and then gets relegated to the basement of the office.
[img]http://www.redstaplerchronicles.com/wp-content/upl...
Should I feel bad for Al?
By Anon
Fri, 09/03/2010 - 3:35pm
That's a decision you'll have to make for yourself.
adam, you're a god
By Anon²
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 1:02pm
adam, you're a god send!
Google failed me earlier when i tried to find the same thing (not knowing if he was still around)
Evacuation Routes?!?
By anon
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 11:42am
I would really love to see what would happen if the city 'activated' the evacuation routes. Beacon Street and route 9 in Brookline is a parking lot during an average day.
I really don see how they will move a ton of people last minute.
Yep..
By c1josh
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 12:39pm
I think I would consider how far I could get on a bicycle if there really was a need to evacuate the city. It may be slow, but it would get through any traffic jam.
Of course, it's all contingent on how far you have to travel to find safety.
Bikevacuation
By SwirlyGrrl
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 1:27pm
I was thinking about this very same thing this morning.
I would seriously consider putting the whole family on the bikes. We are good for about 20 miles, adults more, and probably 30 in an actual emergency.
My big concerns would be our pets. We could bring them on the bikes in their carriers, but then we would have less room for basics. In the car we could haul more.
We are good for about 20
By anon
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 2:42pm
So you could kick the kids to the side at 20 miles and keep going?
Before ditching the kids, top
By anon
Thu, 09/02/2010 - 2:54am
Before ditching the kids, top up your panniers with the supplies the kids were carrying.
Outrun a tropical storm?
By Ron Newman
Thu, 09/02/2010 - 1:38am
Sure, I could theoretically get on my bike and ride to some place like Lowell or Fitchburg in a few hours, but won't those places be just as much affected by any storm as Boston?
Supposed to fly to WY Sat morning for vacation
By merlinmurph
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 12:21pm
Earl might have something to say about that.....
French Toast is for snow
By Stevil
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 12:23pm
Tropical Storms deserve their own symbol - like a maybe a Pina Colada or a daiquiri in a hurricane glass? Maybe a coconut?
Agreed!
By mixylplik3
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 12:24pm
Agreed!
Agreed. It's not like people
By anon
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 2:38pm
Agreed. It's not like people can't leave their house after a hurricane, though the craze to buy milk and eggs is the same. Perhaps a plywood alert, or something like that?
Mint and limes
By SwirlyGrrl
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 12:23pm
Must get some mint and limes. For that after surf mojito.
Colored spaghetti "hurricane track' charts are a joke
By O-FISH-L
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 12:36pm
What's the point of the numerous colored lines going all over the place on the "potential track map," when one line is coming right over Boston, a few have it going far out to sea and a others are somewhere in the middle? The storm is on our doorstep, do we pick our favorite color? Reminds me of when a cop looking for a suspect would run up to the Three Stoges and all six hands would point in different directions, saying "He went thatta way." Only the Stooges were recognized as comedy while meteorology is supposedly a serious profession. At least today's forecasters are easier on the eyes (Dylan, J.C.) even if they can't commit to a forecast.
News sites don't show the
By Anon²
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 1:05pm
News sites don't show the probabilities, why, form your own opinions.
Some are likely, while others are unlikely probability tracks run by super computers.
If you notice the NOAA predictive cone, it pretty much falls between the westward and eastward most lines.
In any case
By SwirlyGrrl
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 1:28pm
Earl is going to be whipping up the spaghetti sauce at the breaks, and all us meatballs will be out there.
Hurricane reporting peeve #11
By Eighthman
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 2:04pm
When it comes to tracking the course of a storm, the TV reports always focus on where the eye is, seemingly not to care that the serious effects span hundreds of miles. While a TV meteorologist may provide context, the imagery is what sticks in people's heads. Stop using small dots to show a storm on a map and use a bull's-eye disk showing the storms true extent, color-coded to reflect the wind speeds.
Agreed. Use the NOAA charts instead!
By DoodleBean
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 3:54pm
They show the probabilities for hurricane force winds.
On the off chance that you seriously want to learn something...
By DoodleBean
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 3:50pm
Major storms are inherently unpredictable since they will move in response to the smallest of influences and in the smallest of timeframes. The best we can do is calculate probabilities -- that means the likelihood of the storm hitting a particular area.
Showing those likelihoods is the point of the numerous colored lines with those confusing numbers you see. For example, if the number says 50, that means there is a 50-50 chance the storm will follow that path or hit that location.
Meteorology is a serious profession, which is why they can give you probabilities instead of a Three Stooges-style shrug and arm-waving. This is all because weather is what we call a "Chaotic System", where there are so many variables and influences that it is impossible to account for them all even in incredibly complex computer models.
You might want to read up on the Hurricane of 1938, which hit the New England coast without warning because there was no radar, no National Weather Service, no computer models and only an infant science of Meteorology.
As for attractive weather presenters -- they are there to make sure you keep watching long enough to watch the advertisements. In other words, they are there to control your behavior.
Watch for those nervous mojito drinkers...
By anon
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 3:29pm
... emptying out the mint and lime aisles!
Evacuation? What about the
By anon
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 12:25pm
Evacuation? What about the people in town who use public transit instead of owning a car? The City's web site doesn't say anything about that. Are we fucked?
Let the universities worry about the students, and let the black people be killed by the tidal wave or nuke or whatever?
That *is* the plan, isn't it?
Buses
By adamg
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 2:12pm
I seem to recall the city would dragoon lots of MBTA buses to get people out.
My question is still what happens when we all converge on Dedham (two of the evacuation routes collide at that sorta rotary by the Dedham Mall).
Relying on MBTA in an
By anon
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 3:03pm
Relying on MBTA in an emergency? I can't rely on them on a daily basis, when they're doing normal things.
In New England, only people right on the coast need to evacuate.
By DoodleBean
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 4:03pm
Calm down, anon. Because New England is rocky and hilly and has seawalls, only folks right on the coast and on the Cape need to evacuate. Even when we've taken a direct hit from hurricanes in the past, the storm surge is limited to areas right on the coast. Especially flat areas right on the coast (such as the Cape).
Yes, there is wind and rain damage inland, but it's the storm surge which will crunch your home and drown you.
You may be thinking of the storm surge from Hurricane Katrina which went many miles inland. That happened because the Gulf Coast states are flat and sandy for many miles inland. It's a far different situation up here.
So, take a deep breath and run to the store to buy milk, eggs and bread!!
Not necessarily so
By adamg
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 4:05pm
Although most likely with Earl, which will be in and out quick as a lick. Most flooding in Mass. actually occurs along rivers, and if we ever get a storm that sticks around for a few days (like we did this past spring), you could indeed see major inland flooding that has nothing to do with storm surges along the coast.
True
By DoodleBean
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 4:12pm
I should have written for Hurricane Earl, which anon seemed most anxious about. If we do take a direct hit from a hurricane which stalls over us, people on flood plains may need to evacuate, also.
Commuter trains can take you to Worcester or Fitchburg or Lowell
By Ron Newman
Thu, 09/02/2010 - 1:45am
but, as with the bicycle, is that really far enough to get out of the way of a tropical storm?
(Going to Rockport or Newburyport or Plymouth or Scituate or Providence is probably even worse than staying put.)
At lunchtime, I picked up
By anon
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 2:55pm
At lunchtime, I picked up several gallon jugs of water.
And sweated another gallon.
Know your tropical cyclone terminology
By adamg
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 4:12pm
The National Weather Service office in Taunton thinks it's time for you to bone up.
there is only one
By ken-no not that one
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 5:22pm
rule for weather; you can track, forecast and prognosticate to your heart's content but if you don't see Shelby Scott hanging on to a lamp post for dear life then there ain't no storm.
Yes, but ...
By adamg
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 5:55pm
Jim Cantore, who is sort of the Weather Channel's Dan Hausle (he only reports on stories with bodies) is now on the Earl beat.
Cantore is the real deal.
By issacg
Thu, 09/02/2010 - 11:35am
Let's give Jim Cantore the credit he is due - he is nearly a Weather Channel original (but been there his whole career), a New Englander (born in CT, raised in VT) and even went to Lyndon State (well known meteorology program). He may cover mostly big stories like hurricanes now, but that is because he put in a lot of grunt work as a real meteorologist.
I grew up watching this guy, and I should have stuck to my original plan to follow him into a much more interesting field that what I am doing now. Good for him.
Cantore
By John-W
Thu, 09/02/2010 - 12:32pm
and no wind-blown do to worry about!
Hurricane watch goes up for Cape and Islands
By adamg
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 5:59pm
The National Weather Service says now would be a good time to prepare.
wbzradio
By anon
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 6:08pm
is noting that a boston blogger has launched the french toast alert ha ha!!!
A boon for Earls
By adamg
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 7:04pm
The Portland Sea Dogs are offering free admission to anybody named Earl Friday night.
FEMA: Now would be a good time to get real shutters
By adamg
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 8:41pm
Not those crappy imitation plastic things. Also, trim the shrubs around your house. Channel 4 thoughtfully posts these and other handy tips.
Here's one of those handy
By KellyJMF
Thu, 09/02/2010 - 12:30pm
Here's one of those handy tips:
French Toast?
By anon
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 9:13pm
OK....am I the only one that doesn't get the "French Toast" references?
It's a joke
By adamg
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 9:23pm
And more of a winter thing: Whenever the forecast calls for a lot of snow, people head to the store to stock up on milk, bread and eggs. The Alert System is basically a measure of how panicked local forecasters are trying to get us all.
A couple of days ago, people started asking me what the French Toast Alert level was for Earl. And so ...
The Providence hurricane barriers
By adamg
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 11:59pm
Engineers say they'd still work even though one of the five pumps is down.
NIAGARA FALLS??
By Kaz
Thu, 09/02/2010 - 9:04am
Sllooooowly, Earl turned...step...by....step...
It continues to follow a heading of 330deg (essentially NW). The track keeps coming closer and closer from where they originally predicted...step by step...
Which Makes Me Wonder...
By Suldog
Thu, 09/02/2010 - 9:10am
Has there ever been a Hurricane Moe, Larry, or Curly? Or Shemp, for that matter? It sure would make for some fun weather reports if Todd Gross broke out some Stooges imitations.
Of course, seeing Al Kaprielian imitating Curly would be enough to let me die happy.
Suldog
http://jimsuldog.blogspot.com
GREAT idea, Suldog
By fenwayguy
Thu, 09/02/2010 - 11:08am
This calls for a Facebook campaign!
Inch by inch...
Larry's on the List
By Ron Newman
Thu, 09/02/2010 - 11:36am
[url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml]for 2015[/url]. (The same year also has an Erika.)
Also, there was a [url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Larry]Cyclone Larry in Australia in 2006[/url].