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Mayoral results: Washington Street as the dividing line
By adamg on Wed, 11/06/2013 - 8:56am
WBUR has posted precinct-by-precinct results on a map. The first thing that stands out is how overwhelmingly Walsh took Hyde Park - it proved his margin of victory.
But also interesting is how Washington Street - the one that runs through Roxbury, JP, Roslindale and West Roxbury - served as a boundary line between Walshville and Connolly Town. East of Washington Street, Walsh won big. West of Washington, it was mostly Connolly.
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Comments
One City!
One City!
Oh you poor naive fool.
Oh you poor naive fool.
Well
It looks like the lower income half of Boston won, i figured a progressive, ultra-liberal site like UH would be happy with the results.
We're delirious with joy
Next step: Deporting people like you.
Thats
What the FEMA camps are for, remember?
People like me
What the blue-collar Old Boston folk. We'll just continue to not welcome you into the neighborhood. Get over it Marty Walsh won, Boston has spoken.
Dapper, is that you?
I didn't know there was internet access down there.
Hey, if he's right....
Then you're going to have to explain who Dapper was to him.
Ward 11, South Street
Interesting on this map that Ward 11, south street area south of the monument in JP, is called Roxbury. Weird because my address is in Jamaica Plain.
WBUR is part of the Boston media
Which means they are even worse than me at figuring out neighborhood lines. There are also some issues with what they consider "Roslindale," I guess.
Roslindale
They don't consider any precinct to be Roslindale, really. It looks like the labels are based on the ward only. The Roslindale precincts in ward 20 are all labeled "West Roxbury/Roslindale", those in ward 19 are labeled "Jamaica Plain", and those in ward 18 are labeled "Hyde Park". Just goes to show how much Roslindale gets carved up whenever political boundaries are drawn.
Secession
We should secede until we are allotted our proper representation.
It's funny because Roslindale seems like the average of all the city demographics- very ethnically and economically diverse. No wonder the tribal aspects of our political system aren't interested in fully claiming it for a district. To me, the fact that Washington St. is the border between the Lynch and Capuano districts is particularly absurd.
Careful what you wish for
If Rozzie - or any neighborhood outside of downtown ever thought of seceding you'd be broke inside of a few months. Keep in mind that downtown generates probably 60-70% of the city's revenue and almost 100% of any new revenue from development- and given that there are so few kids, puts almost no burden on city services.
Without downtown (commercial and residential), no neighborhood in Boston would exist in anything remotely resembling its current form - it would have to quickly become Brookline or another Springfield on life support from Beacon Hill.
Please see my other comment
Please see my other comment regarding why this happened.
Issues with Neighborhood boundries
Just want to comment as the developer of this map. I went off of the official Boston Election office map for precincts, wards with an overlay for neighborhoods. It wasn't an exacting system and I did my best to place precincts in the neighborhoods they belong. Unfortunately, I wasn't able to find a hard and fast list guiding me of each precincts exact neighborhood affiliation. If someone could point me to one (I exhaustively searched and asked around without success) , I'd be happy to update the information in the map.
Here is the map I used, as you can see, it isn't very clear: http://www.cityofboston.gov/maps/pdfs/ward_and_precinct_withstreets.pdf
Welcome to Boston
Where nothing beats a good argument about neighborhood lines.
Isn't that the old "Boston Neck?"
From a purely historical perception, isn't that line an old dividing line in the city?
I read this one of two ways
It's either haves v. have nots or old Boston v. new Boston - either way it's not good.
more like the makers vs the
more like the makers vs the takers or the non-union vs. union neighborhoods
Go back to San Diego, Mitt.
Go back to San Diego, Mitt.
Enjoy living in the rubble
Enjoy living in the rubble when you've destroyed the city. Voting yourself other people's stuff results in them taking their ball and moving elsewhere. That leads to a economic death spiral.
Is your house for sale, then?
When's the open house?
I can't afford a home, let
I can't afford a home, let alone a house in Boston. But you should be worried as a homeowner about who is going to pay for the drastic increase in the cost in services when a large chunk of the wealthy tax base decides to leave. Cities across the country have made the same mistake since the turn of the last century to great detriment. Money is very mobile and if you turn cities back into political and redistribution machines all the people which had been moving back from the burbs will change their minds. You can vote yourself rich peoples' and businesses money at the ballot box all you want. They will in turn vote with their feet.
I can't afford a home, let
Sounds like you're a worthless, lazy slacker, then. Why don't you get off your ass and get a real job? Signed, Mr. Republican.
"Signed, Mr. Republican."
"Signed, Mr. Republican."
Ughhh,
downvote.
This constant drumbeat of "republicans kick little babies and puppies" are for the low informed.
I've never heard any republican chide someone for not being able to afford a home that is in a very high priced market.
But go ahead, play your games.
Ps, I'm independent, vote both parties but see how much of the rhetoric is getting crazy - your post included :)
then you aren't paying attention
Directly in your space? Likely not, because that's electoral suicide in MA.
But the Republicans nationally are really doubling down on the hating these days, and if you haven't noticed that you need to get new glasses and hearing aids.
This constant drumbeat of
The cornfield called. It wants its straw man back.
Nobody says "Republicans kick little babies and puppies". That's a far cry from "Republicans claim that poor people have nobody but themselves to blame", which has been a standard GOP talking point for the last 30 years at least.
Big money isn't going anywhere.....
Because their kids don't go to BPS anyway.
Mayor Curley said that and
Mayor Curley said that and look what happened to the city then. All the monied people fled for Brookline, Newton, and the W's. Businesses relocated to New York and Connecticut. In the span of 20 years the city went from the shinning city on the hill to a disinvested backwater. Can't say Kevin White's magic fiefdom was much better. If it weren't for Flynn and Menino this city would be Baltimore North.
Not really....
Hasn't boston become cme from your average American factory city to basically one of the top 3 most expensive places to live behind SF and NY?
What the hell would Walsh do to effect any of that Nyway?
No not really
Jamaica "Skinny Jeans" Plain is majority "New Boston", while West Roxbury is "Old Boston". Both vote overwhelmingly for Connolly!
You don't know much about JP
You don't know much about JP do you? Can't really read a map very well? I think it shows an interesting dividing line WITHIN JP.
Actually
JP is split between fancy pants pond siders and the rest of us. Pond siders went with Connolly. The rest of JP went with Walsh.
It's super productive
It's super productive comments like this that really add to the conversations of UHub.
Your labels are confusing
If you look at Ward 10 Precinct 9, you'll find that only 2 votes differentiated Connolly from Walsh. I would define that as 'almost a toss up'. I suggest you look closer at the vote counts in each ward/precinct and you''ll see things are much closer than 'haves v have nots'.
HA!
I love it when people say stuff like this! Too funny. No, actually you're all rich or upper middle-class. No matter where you live in Jamaica Plain. JP is an EXPENSIVE PLACE TO LIVE! That is, unless, you have lived in JP for 30 some-odd years, or reside in the projects. The "pond siders and the rest of us"? Haahahhhahahahhahhaaa!!!!!! You mean the assholes who got a Master's in finance vs. the assholes who got a Master's in underwater basket weaving?
Please.
Remind us--which kind of asshole are you?
You definitely are one--I'm just not sure which socio-economic or cultural stereotype you fit into.
I'm the underwater basket-weaving variety myself.
I'd say it's more new vs old
I'd say it's more new vs old boston, the have vs have nots was just clever marketing.
Amazing what a few million dollars worth of clever marketing...
will get you. I got Marty Walsh pencils and a Marty Walsh potholder in the mail, along with a couple of pretty nasty mailers, all courtesy of outside groups. I don't watch much TV but I'm guessing the $500k in ad buys helped too.
The Globe map is more useful
Globe map uses shading to show gradation of victory in each precinct.
Turnout
For all the talk of Walsh as a uniting candidate, turnout was still poor in large sections of Roxbury, Mattapan, Dorchester, basically the communities of color (or whatever terminology you prefer.) I wonder if that's just because of lower political engagement overall or if at the end of the day even Walsh with his support from CGR and Barros was still not that compelling. How did turnout in those areas compare to the presidential elections in 2004 or 2008?
Can you reasonably compare
Turnout in a local election with turnout in a presidential one?
Especially when there are no black canditates?
I know both Walsh and Connolly. Both are solid guys and I really don't think there is much difference between either of them.
The only difference I think between the two is that Connolly would have kept more of the status quo, while Walsh will change some things in terms of promoting people to higher positions.
Interesting
I thought Connolly would be more likely to change things, like the BPS for starters.
Was it ever confirmed by Walsh that he would in fact appoint a black woman police chief as stated by Golar-Richie? That's the only thing I remember which seemed like clear promise.
I don't think much is going to change.
I think Connolly would have been more like Menino though, where people would be appointed to positions based on merit and politics, where Walsh might go with merit and race/gender. Both approaches aren't always the right way to go, but Walsh might mix some things up more than Connolly would in my opinion.
The schools are too big too change, and nothing major will happen there.
Why not?
I'd think a mayoral election after 20 years of an all powerful mayor would be a huge impetus to vote, more so than a Presidential election where a modern day Tea Party vetted Republican has no shot of winning this state.
Feel free to correct me
I just don't think local elections ever get the same kind of turnout as national ones, unless there's something hugely important on the agenda. And obviously the last two Obama elections got enormous and unusual turnout from both minority communities and younger voters. IMO none of the primary candidates of color were truly galvanizing--no Mel Kings here--so I'm not surprised at the lackluster showing.
I think the turnout...
... when Menino first ran for mayor, 20 years ago, was in the 55 to 60 percent range (at least). Thirty-eight percent is a LOT worse than this.
1993 turnout
112k in the primary, 118k in the general.
Do you know the percentage?
I _think_ Boston has more registered voters now. (at least I read that somewhere).
No...
I just grabbed those numbers somewhere. Where's our Nate Silver when we need him?
2005 and 2009 Mayoral Elections
had 95,000 and 110,000 turn out respectively (didn't see percentages) 38% is still not great - but 141,000 votes in a mayoral election is probably one of the best turnouts in recent memory by far no matter the percentage. And good for those that turned out. With a difference of 3500 votes, the whole election turned on a couple thousand people out of a population of over 600,000. In other words, about 1/3 of 1% could have turned the election meaning the mystery 19% that hadn't made up their mind as of last weekend probably broke for Walsh and put him over the top.
In my district the difference for City Council was only a few hundred votes - there are single buildings with a bigger population than that in this city which is why people should show up for local elections. You're pretty unlikely to sway a national election - but the no shows could easily sway a lot of local elections.
it's mostly people who don't intend on living there forever
Owners vote in local elections, renters typically only vote in national/state elections. If you want to see higher turn-out in local elections, these neighborhoods need more owner-occupied housing.
West of Washington for Walsh
Alliteration aside, I live in JP and west of Washington but felt Walsh ultimately is the better candidate. I hope that Walsh's strong ties to union life will actually help him not be a pushover for unions (I believe unions have both good and bad qualities, just as business owners and management). He will have to walk a fine line since he received so much support from unions.
I also sensed that Walsh does a better job of straddling the blue collar and white collar identities of Boston.
Walsh took a risk of a backlash by conservatives in Dorchester by voting against a constitutional amendment forbidding Gays from marrying. Having lived in Dorchester for several years I know first hand that for all the liberal residents of Dot there still are plenty who are hostile toward Gays and might have voted against Walsh for later elected positions. That took guts.
Will Walsh manage to connect the various sub-groups in the city? That depends on what sub-groups want to be active in city government. My sense of Walsh is the he wants to be a mayor for all of Boston but that does not mean that all of Boston wants to be a part of Boston.
All in all however I believe that this was a good race and we are the better for it.
East of Washington Connelly voter here.
I know that I'm still just venting my disappointment but come on...the unions did not POUR money and manpower into this race so they'd get a mayor who would be tough on them. And the class issue flames were very deliberately stirred by the Walsh campaign. Making a big distinction between two Irish guys from Dorchester and Roslindale, one went to Newman and BC and earns six figures working for the state and the union, the other went to RL and Harvard and earns less, I believe, as a lawyer and city councillor...only Boston could come up with this nitpicking one toilet vs lace curtain sh*t.
Also from East of Washington Roslindale
Connolly's supporters (even if not Connolly himself) started floating the "union thug"/ "union patsy" meme pretty early on. Walsh's supporters' rejoinder (even if not Walsh himself) was not so much "Connolly is an attorney, nah, nah, nah!" as it was "why does Connolly talks so much about being a teacher and so little about being an attorney?" Had Connolly, from the first, presented a narrative that (reasonably convincingly) worked in his work as a lawyer, this rejoinder would not have stung him.
(Note -- I had several candidates I preferred to either Connolly or Walsh, but, hey, that's politics...).
I just disagree.
It was very hard to ignore the flood of mail from the unions, especially the really nasty flyers and the very visible union presence in the Walsh campaign. I'm not remotely anti-union per se but feeling the heavy hand of that kind of massive political machinery in a local race was profoundly unsettling. Am I glad it wasn't Koch brothers money or casino money? Yes, but I still would have preferred to have these two candidates run fairly on their merits. If Connelly had been getting flocks of lawyers knocking on doors and making phone calls and funneling secret millions into his campaign, then I'd take your point but as it stands...well, it is what it is.
It wasn't Connolly's...
... "attorney support" that was/would have been problematic -- it was the money from groups that favor public school privatization (some of which did have Koch money behind them). School privatizers (profoundly anti-union) fought a proxy war with pro-union groups here. In this instance, the latter put in more money (though both sides poured in plenty of money and logistic support). It is always best not to be at the center of a proxy war.
Had Connolly not taken such a strong anti-teacher, anti-union line (supporting the idea of unilaterally making teachers work an hour a day more for no extra pay -- if they wouldn't "agree" to do so on their own), I suspect he would not have gotten so much outside money from school privatizers and Walsh would not have gotten so much money from unions. But, even with the unfortunate entry of national money sources, I think Bostonians should be proud (and pleased) that this municipal election season has been remarkably civil and constructive overall.
Who says teachers have to work an extra hour
The city is asking teachers to spend an extra hour in classrooms. The appropriate response for the union - is: OK, something has to give - what can we spend 180 hours less on annually - training requirements, PTA meetings, homework grading, less "volunteering" for after school tutoring (which should be less necessary if every school day is an hour longer) whatever. In theory that's what should happen.
Instead - it's "pay us more money" . If we insist on the same number of hours with different priorities - why should the teachers get paid more?
I think that's a reasonable middle ground that the city can afford.
If they do say pay us more - the budget is a zero sum game - where does that money come from? And if the non-union charters step up and say we'll get the job done for less money - why shouldn't they be allowed to do so? I'd like the BTU to tell us what should be cut so that we can pay them more.
teachers typically have one
teachers typically have one class period of prep time a day - maybe 45 minutes. Do you actually think that teachers are able to do all their grading and lesson planning in that time? Teachers aren't going to get that extra hour for prep - they're going to have to teach - that means one hour less for grading/lesson planning that is UNPAID - and more class time that they have to prep for. And BTU is rightly saying either you pay teachers extra for this time, OR you hire more specials so the classroom teachers can use this time to do grading/lessons that they already do ON THEIR OWN TIME.
Sure
Are you seriously claiming that the $1.5M+ spent by outside groups for Walsh was only a reaction to the $500k spent by DFER? That's hilarious.
I'm sure BTU is psyched that they will not have to change anything with Walsh, but that's not what swung the election.
narrative complications
It's notable that the East Boston situation sort of messes up the framing that's being thrown out there. With the 3rd highest turnout the n'hood went for Walsh, even though he was generally pro-casino keeping the union line (with the caveat of "I'll go with what the people of Eastie decide" late in the game). Looking at the map the "New Boston" areas of Eastie went for Connolly - they were also very active in the No vote effort for the casino. Sal LaMattina handily defeated the "New Boston/No Casino" candidate, even though he was staunchly pro-casino.
Which is all to say things are sometimes more complicated than glib internet posts, electoral experts and hack-journalists can deal with. Speaking of electoral experts, I had to scratch my head when Steve Koczela of MassInc Polling on WBUR tried to explain their failure to forecast the casino vote by saying that there hadn't been enough polling. I've been getting calls everyfuckingday for the past month from goddamned pollsters, MassINC, Suffolk, UNH and multiple push-polls from Suffolk Downs' contractors. sheesh.
And I want to tattoo Larry DiCara's quote on his forehead: "There hasn't been corruption in Boston for 20 years." ...snicker....
Totally agree
Lots of intersecting and cross-cutting things were going on in this election. It will take lots of post-mortem sorting out -- but I'm not sure any news organization will bother to undertake the amount of effort involved -- and even then there may be unquantifiable intangibles that don't quite add up.
If Caesar's had not been bumped right before the election, who knows what the impact would have been -- on both the Casino vote and the mayoral race.
My first reaction to the maps
My first reaction to the maps was also that Eastie blew a hole in the tidy have/have-not old-Boston/new-Boston narrative.
Precinct 11 for example
I think most would characterize Precinct 11 (the poet named streets) as "Old Boston" and they did back Walsh over Connolly 400-345. However, they also gave one of the biggest NO votes at 458-289 and along with Precinct 12 led East Boston in turnout (% in the high 50s). Precinct 12, which is also "Old Boston" voted NO 428-320, but also went for Walsh. There was a lot of quiet opposition among long time residents who remember past injustices and don't want to bear more burdens for the state. These two precincts also both rely on Bennington Street to access their neighborhood, which at one point is the only alternative to 1A to travel along East Boston. They would've been trapped by casino traffic. On the other hand Precinct 1 (Jeffries Point) lived up to its reputation as "New Boston" voting for Connolly and opposing the casino with a whopping 442-188 vote. I still can't believe that the NO vote won in every precinct but one, where it still got 44% of the vote.
Link to EB Casino Results
Precinct 15
wait....who are the 7 people who live on the island that is Precinct 15??
Long Island Shelter
It's the only part of Ward 1 that votes in Dorchester.
So...
people who are living in the shelter (and registered to vote there) want a casino....to spend...all....their.....money....? FREE DRINKS!!
before you start ranting
Sally, perhaps you should learn how to spell the name of the person you voted for...
Or maybe I should use some device without autocorrect
Apparently I know more Connelly's than Connolly's. But thanks for the anonymous nitpicking.
Washington Street PLUS
Take Washington Street from the Dedham Line to Forest Hills, then follow the railroad tracks to Back Bay. That's the divide save a few precincts.
Best way to go- Bus 34 to Orange Line, but you can bike it, too. Just don't start at Back Bay if you're biking.