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Election roundup: Take a look at per-precinct numbers; voters will get say on an elected school committee

Map of Boston preliminary election results by precinct

MassInc. has compiled a map of results in Tuesday's preliminary; you can hover over an individual precinct to see its numbers.

Also interesting is the map of who came in second where - Campbell didn't win a lot of precincts but she came in second all over the city.

As the Dorchester Reporter first reported earlier this week, William Gross's pro-Essaibi George Super PAC was heavily funded by New Balance head and Republican Jim Davis - to the tune of $395,000.

Speaking of super PACs, CommonWealth Magazine reports that Charlie Baker's let's-elect-centrists super PAC not only hasn't put any money into the Boston election, it seems to have gone dormant - it hasn't raised or spent any money at all this year.

The City Council yesterday approved a non-binding referendum for the November ballot on whether Boston should return to an elected school committee. Actually going back to one would required action by the state legislature; Councilors Arroyo and Mejia are working on that. Boston went to an appointed committee in 1992.

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Comments

An all elected school committee creates one set of problems. An all appointed school committee creates a different set of problems. The best situation is somewhere in the middle.

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Voting closed 31

Driving on the right causes one set of problems, driving on the left causes a different set of problems, so let's drive somewhere in the middle.

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Driving on the left and the right don't cause different sets of problems.

As simplistic a solution as the idea of just taking the middle between two arbitrary options is, sometimes balancing two opposing forces is the optimal option.

The solution to moral problems is never to meet in the middle.

The solution to power struggles sometimes is to meet in the middle.

I don't know much about the school committee; I am not taking a specific stand on that. I'm primary annoyed by the poor analogy of driving.

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Voting closed 14

Bad news for AEG is that she wasn't second place pretty much anywhere and that Campbell voters are largely going to go to Wu. Wu was second in more spots, but of course won the most districts to start with. I think this might be a Walsh/Tito style rout. Still, there's a lot of powerful, rich people who will help AEG get her message out so we'll see.

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Voting closed 53

The general will be an order of magnitude larger in voting numbers. That should not be forgotten.

I still see Wu winning but I am not sure it will be the rout you think it will be. Wu is going to have her big bold ideas scrutinized more now that it is between the two of them. Voters might start asking how will you make the MBTA free. If I were advising the AEG campaign my suggestion would be to keep asking for specifics and how the Mayors office directly would accomplish these goals.

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Voting closed 37

More like "about 25%"

1993: 111k --> 115k

1997: Menino unopposed

2001: 44 --> 89 (prelim only contested because Althea came in a distant third)

2005: [no prelim]

2009: 80k --> 110k

2013: 113k --> 141k

2017 (not a competitive prelim): 56k --> 107k.

2021: 108k --> ??

I could see this, as another posted posts, being similar to the 1993 election. In that case, Menino was the leader in the prelim with 27%, and Brett a close section at 22%, having beaten out two close challengers (Rufo and Salerno at 20 and 17%) and Bruce Bolling, that year's John Barros, with 6%. In the final, Menino had broad support across the city, an Brett only won in his home district of Dorchester and Southie, and Menino consolidated the rest of the vote, winning 65-35. Wu doesn't have the power of acting incumbency, so I wouldn't expect that sort of blowout margin. But I could see AEG holding onto Dorchester, Westie and some other scattered precincts, but not rebuilding the 2013 Walsh coalition.

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Voting closed 19

When Janey won, Campbell was usually in second, and vice versa. That's a lot of geography up for grabs.

Essaibi-George has an outside chance is somehow she can get support of either Janey or Campbell and is successful in hitting Wu on her key freebie points. That said, I see this being more like Menino-Brett.

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Wu is being funded by an equally rich white guy named Paul Egerman from Weston. Via the Boston Turnout Project.

Also whats up with a LOT of Wu's direct funding coming from people out of state. Must be a record for a Mayor race in Boston

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Voting closed 67

Is there a map showing turnout per precinct by percentage?

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Yes, if you are a subscriber, the Globe has a well made map at the link below.

Always fascinating how someone like AEG can get 80/100 in one area (Neponset, W16 P12) and barely 5/100 a mile away (Codman Square or Grove Hall area).

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/09/16/metro/this-map-shows-where-mayora...

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Is it really?

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The question was whether there was a map showing turnout per precinct by percentage (presumably of registered voters, but maybe I misunderstood what Parkwayne was asking.) That Globe map you linked doesn't show anything by percentage, it's just a bunch of randomly scattered dots representing votes for each candidate. There's no percentages shown of any kind, and it can only be filtered by neighborhood, not by precinct.

Are you, perhaps, referring to this map, which does show the candidates' individual percentages for each precint?

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Lets compare it to a racial dot map, http://racialdotmap.demographics.coopercenter.org/

Essaibi George's support is exclusively in the whitest parts of the city. There is a reason trump supporters like her.

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Spent about an hour looking at this, such good stuff. One thing we can all agree on: it’s time to invade and densify Brookline. (And West Roxbury, which I guess is Brookline for townies.)

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Brookline is a redlined town. Anyone who moves there and then wants to promote themselves as a progressive is kind of a fraud. People like Chris Dempsey who talks a good talk but cleared opted to live among rich white folks to raise his own family.

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Imagine all the bus drivers you would need both public and private if you did that?

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Janey seemed to beat Campbell by large margins in most of the majority black districts. Except for her home area, Campbell seemed to primarily be the choice of progessives in non-black areas who had an issue with Wu.

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I think her backers were absolutely for Campbell, not just voting for her as a fallback because they didn't like Wu for some reason.

She was a great candidate.

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I think it's heartening in a way that two of the four candidates (Wu/Campbell) had a pretty broad appeal across a lot of diverse neighborhoods. AEG and Janey did do well, but only with their core constituencies (white and black neighborhoods, where they benefited from specific groups which GOTV in those neighborhoods)

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Funny how the majority-white districts that went for Essaibi George mostly gave second place to Wu-- the candidate with the most clearly opposite policies and priorities. You could almost get to thinking that a deep-seated racial animus against Black people is in play...

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West Roxbury, Southie, and Dorchester, you mean? They're neighborhoods still full of racist townies clinging to their grandparents' houses waiting for it to appraise for a cool million instead of a mere 900,000 before fleeing to the north/south shore, and also full of gentrifying software-dev/life-sciences/finance-bro young millennial couples who are buying those houses for 900k and are, generally, into the progressive-but-professional style politics Wu espouses?

It's not like this is ranked choice voting. The first-second split shows the changing nature of the neighborhoods.

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Voting closed 20

Your comment makes it seems like you are treating a district as a monolithic voter and the vote tallies as ranked choice voting.

Isn't it highly plausible that in these majority white precincts, a plurality of voters had a first choice of AEB, and many other voters, with different, more progressive priorities, had a first choice of Wu?

Now there is certainly room to ask why majority white precincts voted in low numbers for the Black women, but there is no data that suggest any individual white voter's first preference was AEB and second preference was Wu (or vice versa).

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I live in Ward 16, and never heard race mentioned once. What I did hear was that most people thought that we had the best group of candidates that anyone could remember. Annissa ran strong in Dorchester because people know her, as a teacher, small business owner, mother and life long resident, who was involved in the community long before she entered politics. Coastal Dorchester is far from the conservative racist bastion that you attempt to smear with your ignorant comment. There are many newcomers, and many long term residents, some of whom have a more liberal point of view. For them, Michelle Wu was the best choice, because she is personable, intelligent, well-educated and experienced (despite her support from Liz Warren and the rest of the lunatic fringe:) Andrea Campbell has an amazing, compelling story and an incredible education. However, Michelle Wu has been much more visible for a longer time period. That is the main distinction between the two candidates, for those who decided not to vote for Annissa. Incidentally, Annissa is the daughter of a father who immigrated from Tunisia, which is in Africa, if that is your litmus test.

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Yeah, as long as no one mentioned race, there can’t have been racial factors at play. Totally how things work.

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As in finance, past performance is not an indication of future success. Wonder what the turnout will be.

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Interesting to see how Wu support in Roslindale has eaten away at an area that might have stronger support for the cops-and-fire candidate. Roslindale has often been the forgotten neighborhood in Boston politics, with no district City Council member or state representative of its own. Being from Roslindale, Michelle Wu has captured almost every district on her side of the Parkway and in very large numbers over Annissa Essaibi George.

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HP is the forgotten one but we do have a council person. Roslindale is hip and HP is not.

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HP has one state rep, Roslindale shares 4 reps who are primarily interested in their home districts. Roslindale has Einstein Bagels but Hyde Park has My Grandma's Coffee Cake. Draw.

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Fair.

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I live in a progressive neighborhood, am progressive on most issues but support AEG because improving Boston Public Schools is my number one issue. School districts are complex top down bureaucratic machines and unless you've worked in one you wouldn't have a clue about how to reform them. She is the only mayoral candidate in the history of Boston who has been a BPS teacher, student and parent and is in the best position to redesign the system.

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I do like that she is a former teacher, but someone who loves police the way she does cannot possibly understand how to make schools affirming places for Black and brown children.

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I discussed this point with her and she told me that she sees the police presence as a short term solution while the schools build the social emotional resources to adequately support students and the community policing program is beefed up. I see her point - it's not usual to see students even in elementary school acting in ways that put their classmates and teachers in serious danger. I also doubt that that the Boston Teachers Union would support the withdrawal of police in schools if teachers didn't have the resources and training to protect their classrooms.

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